Oil prices closed nearly unchanged on Thursday. Iranian state media reported that around 30 vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz, though an attack on one ship and the seizure of another continued to fuel market worries over energy supply flows during the Iran war.
Brent crude futures settled 9 cents higher, up 0.09%, at $105.72 per barrel. The global benchmark hit an intraday high of $107.13 but spent much of the session in negative territory. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended at $101.17, gaining 15 cents, or 0.15%.
On Wednesday, Brent fell more than $2 a barrel and WTI dropped over $1 as investors fretted that the U.S. could raise interest rates to curb inflation.
Three sources familiar with White House discussions told media that U.S. officials are scrambling to manage the economic and political fallout from the war with Iran.
The strait has been largely closed since the Iran war broke out in late February. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said 30 vessels have transited the waterway since Wednesday evening, still far below the pre-war normal daily average of 140 ships.
Tehran also appears to have tightened its grip on the strait, striking deals with Iraq and Pakistan to transport oil and liquefied natural gas from the region.
Shipping tracking data from the London Stock Exchange Group on Thursday showed that a Panama-flagged crude tanker operated by Japanese refiner ENEOS has also passed through the strait, marking the second Japan-linked tanker to do so successfully.
However, on Thursday an Indian cargo ship carrying livestock from Africa to the United Arab Emirates sank off the coast of Oman; the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that "unidentified individuals" boarded a vessel anchored off the UAE port of Fujairah and steered it toward Iran.
"The rising number of vessels allowed to pass is having a greater impact on market sentiment than on the actual supply-demand balance," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
"While this may cap oil prices in the near term, it is not an ideal factor for a substantial decline."
The International Monetary Fund said the global economy is clearly entering a moderate "adverse scenario" due to the war and the strait closure, forecasting that global real GDP growth will slow to 2.5% this year from 3.4% in 2025.
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global oil supply will fall short of demand this year as inventories are drawn down at an unprecedented rate.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that for the week ending May 8, U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels, driven by rising exports; however, distillate stockpiles increased, contrary to market expectations for a decline.
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