Spot Gold:
On July 22nd, fundamental drivers saw the international gold price extend its short-term bullish bias during the Asian session on Monday, touching a fresh two-week high near $4,141.59 per ounce, precisely approaching the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, before retreating slightly to around $4,130. Market sentiment is in a delicate balance: on one hand, hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy to ease energy prices and temper Federal Reserve hawkish expectations provide a rebound opportunity for gold; on the other hand, persistent geopolitical friction and elevated probability of further rate hikes are causing some hesitation among gold bulls. The U.S. dollar index paused after four consecutive days of gains, offering a breathing space for the gold price recovery. The core contradiction lies in investors weighing the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a tightening stance to curb energy-driven inflation against the geopolitical risk premium from the uncertain U.S.-Iran situation.
Technical Analysis Perspective
Focusing on the 4-hour cycle, gold staged a strong rebound after consolidating technically around the $4,000 level, establishing a short-term oscillating uptrend. The moving average system is gradually turning upward, signaling a return of buying power. The RSI indicator rebounded from lower levels, showing a significant recovery in short-term momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. If gold can successfully break through the $4,150 resistance, further upside will be unlocked; conversely, a break below $4,040 could see a retest of the $4,000 support. The current 4-hour price action suggests bulls hold a temporary advantage, but the direction remains tightly linked to geopolitical risk dynamics. Key levels to watch in the evening session are resistance at $4,145/$4,173 and support at $4,080/$4,060.
Evening Trading Recommendations for Gold
Personal suggestion: Consider long positions on a pullback to $4,095/$4,080, and consider short positions on a rebound to $4,172/$4,190, with a 10-point stop loss for each, targeting 20/50 points.
WTI Crude Oil:
Fundamental drivers on Wednesday, July 22nd, saw U.S. crude oil prices continue their rebound during the Asian session. Escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, dim prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations, and a sharp rise in risk sentiment; coupled with heightened security risks in multiple global energy transport chokepoints like the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region, have led markets to maintain a high risk premium, pushing international crude prices to a fresh high of over five weeks. Multiple supply-side risks are converging, keeping the oil market in a pattern of high volatility.
Technical Analysis Overview
From a technical standpoint, on the daily chart, as investors assess the crude supply situation across multiple global regions, international oil prices have surged strongly, reclaiming territory above key moving average areas. However, as prices approach previous resistance zones, signs are emerging that the momentum for chasing the rally may be gradually weakening. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD indicator shows strong bullish momentum, with the moving average system diverging upward, establishing a clear short-term objective trend direction. Today's price action maintains an upward rhythm, but attention is needed on potential technical correction pressures following consecutive short-term gains. Key levels to watch in the evening session are resistance at $87.8/$89.0 and support at $85.0/$83.0.
Evening Trading Recommendations for Crude Oil
Personal suggestion: Consider long positions on a pullback to $85.3/$83.2, and consider short positions on a rebound to $87.8/$89.8, with a 1.0-point stop loss for each, targeting 3.0 points per barrel.
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