Recent research from Omdia indicates that U.S. PC shipments, excluding tablets, increased by 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching 18.2 million units. This growth reversed the declining trend observed over the previous two consecutive quarters. The upturn was primarily driven by multiple factors, including the peak of the commercial refresh cycle for Windows 11, strong holiday season demand, and manufacturers building inventory ahead of anticipated memory and storage supply constraints in 2026. For the full year 2025, PC shipments totaled 71.5 million units, also reflecting a 3% increase compared to the previous year. However, due to severe limitations in memory and storage product availability, Omdia forecasts a 13% decline in PC shipments for 2026.
Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Omdia, commented, "The fourth quarter marked a significant turning point for the U.S. PC market. Following two consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline, the market returned to growth, with both consumer and commercial segments performing steadily. Consumer market shipments grew 6% year-over-year to 8.2 million units, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth, largely propelled by holiday demand and a shift in product mix toward more value-oriented models. Meanwhile, commercial PC shipments increased by 4% year-over-year, as businesses accelerated deployments of Windows 11 ahead of the end of support for Windows 10 in October, serving as a key driver for enterprise demand."
Jessop further noted, "The education market remained relatively weak, with shipments declining 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. However, this represents a notable improvement compared to the 29% drop in the third quarter and the 16% decline in the second quarter. Reduced funding at the federal and state levels continues to impact school procurement, but Omdia believes the inventory backlog observed mid-year has now largely been resolved. Meanwhile, government sector PC shipments saw a modest 1% year-over-year increase, stabilizing after a significant decline early in 2025."
Jessop added, "Looking ahead to 2026, the market outlook is considerably more cautious. Since early 2025, memory and storage costs have risen by 40–70%, and Omdia expects the cost of memory and storage for mainstream PCs to increase by at least another 60% in the first quarter of 2026. These supply constraints are anticipated to most significantly affect models priced below $500, a segment that includes a large portion of the education and entry-level consumer markets. As profit margins shrink in the low-end market and resource allocation priorities shift, smaller manufacturers, in particular, face the risk of being squeezed out of the market."
Omdia predicts U.S. PC shipments will decline by 13% in 2026 to approximately 61.9 million units, with a modest recovery expected in 2027.
Jessop concluded, "Dell Technologies Inc. saw a substantial 22% year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter, capturing 25% market share and jumping to the second position in the U.S. market, marking its strongest quarterly performance in over two years. Its growth was concentrated in the commercial sector, benefiting from large enterprise refresh orders and strong momentum in its premium product lines. HP Inc. maintained its leading position with 25% market share, despite achieving only 1% growth. Both Lenovo Group and Apple held market shares in the teens. However, from a full-year perspective, the most notable performer among manufacturers was Apple, which continued to gain share in the U.S. enterprise market, reaching 11% for the full year 2025, a 2.4 percentage point increase from 2024. This growth was primarily driven by the MacBook Air, especially after the M4 Air model's memory was doubled to 16GB and its price was reduced by $100, bringing it back to the $999 price point of the M1 model. The anticipated $599 Neo model is expected to continue this value trend, posing a significant challenge to the entry-level market."
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