Abstract
Fortune Brands Home & Security will report results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes the latest market forecasts for revenue, gross margin, net profitability, and adjusted EPS, reviews the prior quarter’s performance, and consolidates institutional opinions and near-term business drivers.Market Forecast
- The market anticipates Fortune Brands Home & Security to deliver revenue of $1.14 billion this quarter, with EPS of $1.00 and EBIT of $186.60 million. Year over year, revenue is projected to decline by 0.79%, EPS by 5.60%, and EBIT by 6.02%. - The company’s product economics are expected to remain stable, with a focus on maintaining margin discipline; detailed gross margin and net margin guidance are not provided in the forecast dataset, though the latest trailing quarter showed a gross profit margin of 45.75% and net profit margin of 6.16%, which investors may use as context for modeling. - The main business remains plumbing-centric, and management’s focus is on resilient demand in core brands and distribution, while price/mix and incremental productivity initiatives are expected to underpin margins. The most promising segment is Plumbing, projected to remain the largest revenue driver; in the last reported quarter, this segment delivered $618.50 million, and investors will watch for stabilization and volume recovery as a pathway to year-over-year inflection.Last Quarter Review
- Fortune Brands Home & Security reported last quarter revenue of $1.15 billion, a gross profit margin of 45.75%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $70.80 million, a net profit margin of 6.16%, and adjusted EPS of $1.09. Year over year, revenue declined by 0.53%, EPS decreased by 6.03%, and EBIT decreased by 4.49%. - A key highlight was disciplined cost control and steady price/mix supporting margins despite mixed end-market demand; however, net profit decreased quarter on quarter by 29.41% as the company navigated seasonal volume and input-cost dynamics. - Main business highlights: Plumbing contributed $618.50 million, Doors and Security contributed $344.50 million, and Security contributed $186.20 million, with segment performance reflecting ongoing normalization in demand and channel inventory patterns; year-over-year revenue changes by segment were not disclosed in the dataset.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Plumbing
Plumbing remains the core revenue engine for Fortune Brands Home & Security, with the last quarter’s revenue contribution of $618.50 million anchoring the company’s top line. Into this quarter, the forecast implies modest revenue pressure at the consolidated level, declining by 0.79% year over year to $1.14 billion, which suggests that volume recovery in plumbing may be gradual. Investors will pay close attention to order trends with wholesale distributors and home improvement channels, where replenishment has been paced by macro conditions and discretionary demand for remodeling. Price/mix remains a powerful lever, and the company’s brand positioning supports targeted pricing retention, though normalization in inflationary pass-throughs may reduce incremental price benefits in the near term. Key to the outlook is whether demand in repair-and-remodel stabilizes across large-ticket categories, which would help limit downside and protect mix quality.Margin durability within plumbing is a central swing factor. The trailing gross margin of 45.75% provides a constructive benchmark, but EBIT is forecast at $186.60 million, down 6.02% year over year for the quarter, signaling some pressure from lower absorption and promotional normalization. Management’s operational efficiency initiatives and cost discipline can offset part of this headwind. Supply chain conditions and commodity inputs—particularly in resins, metals, and freight—are less volatile than in prior cycles, which supports better planning and service levels. Execution on product innovation and channel partnerships is likely to sustain share in core categories, keeping the plumbing franchise well-positioned as housing turnover remains subdued.
The near-term catalyst set includes order patterns from wholesale and retail partners and signs of an inflection in discretionary remodel projects. If mix holds and promo intensity remains manageable, plumbing margins should track within a relatively narrow band around recent levels. However, if volume softness broadens, the company may see incremental deleverage that weighs on EBIT, consistent with the forecasted year-over-year decline.
Most promising business: Doors and Security
Doors and Security, with last quarter revenue of $344.50 million, is set up as a relative outperform candidate if new construction and exterior remodeling activity hold stable through early 2026. Demand for entry systems and security hardware tends to correlate with household formation and renovation, where any incremental improvement in mortgage rate volatility or consumer confidence could support volume. The segment’s product mix also allows selective pricing and promotional strategies that can protect contribution margins even if unit volumes remain below peak.From a margin perspective, the company’s consolidated net margin of 6.16% last quarter frames the profitability context. Doors and Security benefits from ongoing productivity initiatives and channel optimization, which can help buffer EBIT against volume variability. The forecasted EPS of $1.00 for the quarter, down 5.60% year over year, implies that efficiencies will not fully offset lower volumes and slightly higher competitive intensity. Investors will monitor backlog conversion, lead times, and order intake to assess if there is an early-year uptick in activity that could close the gap versus last year.
The biggest upside driver in this segment would be a modest acceleration in single-family completions and exterior remodel projects, which can flow through to better mix and operating leverage. Conversely, if contractors and retailers remain cautious on inventory, revenue could lag seasonal norms, making the current forecast for a slight top-line decline reasonable. Execution on new product introductions and channel partnerships could tilt results toward the upper end of expectations.
Stock price drivers this quarter
Earnings sensitivity this quarter is most likely tied to a handful of variables: revenue trajectory relative to the $1.14 billion forecast, gross margin resilience compared with the last quarter’s 45.75%, and operating leverage implied by the $186.60 million EBIT estimate. Any variation in price/mix dynamics or promotions in core categories will have an outsized impact on margins, given relatively stable input costs. A beat on EPS would probably require firmer volumes than embedded in consensus or greater-than-expected productivity gains that limit deleverage.Channel commentary and order patterns will be closely watched. If distributors and retail partners indicate improving sell-through and normalized inventories, the market could reassess the durability of demand in plumbing and doors/security categories. On the other hand, cautious commentary or evidence of demand deferral could reinforce the forecasted year-over-year declines in EPS and EBIT. Management’s commentary on early-2026 remodeling trends and the cadence of new construction will be an important qualitative input for investors.
Capital allocation and balance-sheet flexibility are additional considerations. While not explicitly included in the near-term forecast, consistent cash generation provides optionality for reinvestment, selective M&A in adjacent categories, and shareholder return. The degree to which the company can preserve margin discipline while supporting innovation and channel initiatives will influence the valuation reaction to in-line results.
Analyst Opinions
Based on the collected items within the January 01, 2026 to February 05, 2026 window, the majority of identifiable opinions lean cautious, emphasizing modestly contracting earnings metrics and subdued top-line trends in the near term. Commentary points to a tempered stance heading into the print, with an emphasis on the projected declines in EPS by 5.60% and EBIT by 6.02%, and a slight revenue decline of 0.79%. In this setup, analysts frame the quarter as a transition period in which execution, cost control, and signs of end-demand stabilization will dictate whether shares can re-rate.The cautious view centers on several factors. First, the revenue guide embedded in market expectations suggests limited volume support early in the year, consistent with macro crosscurrents in remodeling and discretionary categories. Second, the EBIT and EPS contraction implies deleverage that may not be fully offset by productivity gains, even if gross margins remain near recent levels. Third, incremental promotional intensity cannot be ruled out in selective categories, which could pressure margins if sell-through softens. Against this backdrop, analysts acknowledge that management’s operational initiatives and portfolio strength help mitigate downside risk, but they prefer clearer evidence of demand inflection before turning more constructive.
In summary, the prevailing institutional stance is cautious into the February 12, 2026 report, driven by the expectation of modest year-over-year declines in key profitability metrics and a slight dip in revenue. The focus is on the trajectory of plumbing and doors/security orders, the stability of gross margins around recent benchmarks, and signals of an improving demand landscape that could set up a better second half. If the company demonstrates resilience in margins and indicates recovering volume trends, sentiment could improve quickly; until then, expectations are balanced toward conservative outcomes.
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