Introduction: This year, the A-share market has demonstrated strong profitability, yet investors face new dilemmas: "Should I enter the market now or wait?" "How can I avoid falling back into the cycle of chasing rallies and selling off?" "With heightened volatility in hot sectors, should I hold or exit?"
To uphold the principle of "investor-centric" practices and provide continuous guidance and support, CITIC-Prudential Fund's "UPwards with Warmth in Investment" investor service series continues its nationwide rollout. The initiative aims to foster long-term, rational asset allocation strategies through structured financial education, professional investment decision-making support, and market-aligned interactive discussions.
Recently, the event arrived in Shenzhen, engaging investors in face-to-face discussions on the theme of "Asset Allocation Across Economic Cycles." Against the backdrop of gradually improving market expectations, the event sought to decode current market dynamics, address investor concerns, and explore pathways to steady wealth growth amid volatility.
1. **Understanding Economic Cycles to Navigate Market "Seasons"** The event’s speakers first addressed a common investor dilemma: Why does market participation often fail to yield ideal returns? The key lies in understanding the interplay between economic cycles and market trends to guide investment decisions.
Since 2025, amid sustained macro-policy support and ample liquidity, the A-share market has exhibited a "supported bottom with resistance overhead" pattern, oscillating upward as expectations and realities gradually align. The year’s trajectory can be broadly divided into three phases:
- **Policy Support Remains Accommodative**: Coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have provided liquidity and confidence, while capital market support tools have steered long-term funds into the market. - **Market Phases: Bottoming–Recovery–Consolidation**: - Early-year adjustments and sentiment digestion solidified a bottoming phase. - Mid-year clarity in policy expectations spurred a rebound. - Post-recovery, the market entered a high-range consolidation phase, awaiting further validation from corporate earnings and fundamentals.
Speakers emphasized that investors should focus less on predicting short-term fluctuations and more on adopting a "navigation mindset"—leveraging institutional frameworks and risk insights to manage emotions and adhere to long-term allocation discipline.
2. **Enhanced Market Resilience: Shorter Downturn Cycles** Another speaker analyzed historical A-share volatility trends, noting that post-correction recoveries have accelerated significantly. For instance, while past downturns lasted over 30 months, recent corrections have resolved within months—a shift attributed to deeper market participation and growing long-term capital influence, signaling stronger intrinsic resilience.
Thus, while short-term volatility persists, the market’s self-correcting capacity suggests investors should prioritize medium-to-long-term positioning over reactive trading. On queries about AI/semiconductor sectors, the speaker affirmed their long-term growth potential, attributing current volatility to sentiment and technical adjustments rather than eroded fundamentals.
3. **Building a Personal Investment "Navigation System"** Amid inevitable market noise—sector rotations, style shifts, and decision paralysis—certain principles remain actionable. The Shenzhen event aimed to equip investors with tools like "economic cycle positioning," "navigation thinking," and "long-term allocation" to navigate complexity rationally. This aligns with CITIC-Prudential Fund’s mission: empowering investors to achieve sustainable returns through disciplined, cycle-aware strategies.
**Risk Disclosure**: This material is for reference only, reflecting current views without guaranteeing future outcomes or constituting investment advice. Past performance doesn’t predict future results. Investors should review fund documents and acknowledge risks independently.
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