Natural Rubber: On Monday, domestic full latex was priced at 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thailand 20# mixed rubber was at 14,850 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. On the raw material front, Thai rubber latex closed at 57.5 THB/kg yesterday, down 0.5 THB/kg from the previous day, while Thai cup lump price settled at 52.0 THB/kg, down 0.2 THB/kg from the previous day. Yunnan has ceased tapping; Hainan has ceased tapping. As of January 18, 2026, the combined inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 584,900 tons, an increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94% from the previous period. Bonded zone inventory stood at 99,500 tons, up 6.42%; general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, up 2.26%. The ware-in rate for Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.85 percentage points, while the ware-out rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the ware-in rate for general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the ware-out rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. Outlook: With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season. This signifies a shift in the pricing framework for outright prices from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on existing inventory. Against the backdrop of broadly strengthening expectations in the commodity market recently, RU, NR, and Sicom are expected to remain in high-range oscillation in the short term. Looking ahead, although demand for global rubber products like tires is anticipated to see moderate growth in 2026, this demand growth requires time, and with global trade barriers not yet fully eliminated, the magnitude of demand growth may still be constrained. Therefore, the peak of the current rebound is expected to be no higher than the level seen at the end of July 2025, before the 2026 Lunar New Year.
PX: Supply and demand both decreased. China's PX industry operating rate fell by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month to 89.4%, while the Asian industry operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6%. The domestic operating rate is already at a high level for the same period in previous years, and the announced maintenance plans for January-March are weaker than in previous years. Coupled with planned operating rate increases at overseas plants, overall supply is expected to remain ample. On the demand side, downstream PTA units still have numerous maintenance plans in the first quarter, which will suppress PX demand. The PX supply-demand balance is expected to loosen in Q1. Former US President Trump's threats to impose additional tariffs on Europe pressured the US dollar index. The persistently tight Middle East geopolitical risk premium partially receded, with market focus shifting to the situation in Greenland. However, the underlying risk sources in Iran remain unresolved and are expected to continue providing solid support for oil prices. Overall, the polyester industry still has underlying support, but terminal demand is showing a seasonal weakening trend. The industry chain is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter. The PX May futures price is expected to undergo a short-term correction following oil prices; monitor overseas aromatics prices. From a medium-term perspective, consider establishing long positions near the support zone of 6950-7050 on dips.
PTA: Supply and demand both decreased. The PTA industry operating rate fell by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 76.3%, at a relatively low level for the same period in previous years. Combined with numerous Q1 maintenance plans, supply expectations are shrinking. On the demand side, the new order atmosphere is generally weak, and the operating rates of terminal factories in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. The polyester industry operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 88.3%. Based on announced maintenance plans, industry operating rates are expected to accelerate their decline starting from the latter part of the month. Overall, the fundamentals of the current TA-polyester segment still have support, and PTA spot basis is generally strong. However, its sustainability will be tested by expectations of polyester production cuts, while weakening terminal demand will also act as a suppressant. The industry chain faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1. In the short term, TA May futures are expected to adjust in line with oil prices, with strong support anticipated below the 5000 mark. Industrial players may consider rolling short hedging in the 5100-5300 range. Medium-term investors can focus on the support zone of 4950-5050, looking for buying opportunities near the 5000 mark. Relevant Market News Production-Sales: Jiangsu-Zhejiang polyester filament production-sales were generally weak on Monday, with the average estimated at 40-50% by around 3:30 PM. Production-sales figures for several factories in Jiangsu-Zhejiang were 130%, 70%, 35%, 45%, 30%, 20%, 100%, 40%, 40%, 30%, 0%, 0%, 20%, 20%, 80%, 85%, 50%, and 30%, respectively.
EG: Supply increased while demand decreased. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 74.4%. Specifically, the syngas-based operating rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 80.2%, at a high level for the same period in previous years. The current price is still insufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, and the spot basis is weak. Although high freight costs and maintenance at Middle Eastern plants may reduce Q1 imports, overall supply pressure remains due to ample domestic supply. On the demand side, new order performance is weak, and terminal factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region continue to decline. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in January, with February potentially being the period of highest inventory pressure in the first half of the year. Overall, while the macroeconomic atmosphere has warmed somewhat, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, making supply pressure the dominant factor. In the short term, EG May contract prices are expected to fluctuate; consider selling high and buying low within a reference range of 3700-4000. Relevant Market News Inventory: Port inventory of ethylene glycol in key areas of East China was approximately 795,000 tons, down 7,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous period. Units: A 300 kt/year syngas-based EG unit in Anhui recently reduced its operating rate to 80-90%; the recovery time is undetermined. A 360 kt/year EG unit in Southwest China began shutdown maintenance around Jan. 18, expected to last about 10 days. The capacity involved in these changes accounts for 0.2%.
PF: Supply was stable while demand decreased. The operating rate for spun yarn direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained flat at 99.1%. Low inventory at enterprises supported production willingness, keeping the industry operating rate high, with relatively limited announced maintenance plans. On the demand side, downstream yarn enterprises are entering the pre-holiday winding-down phase. Combined with pressure for capital repatriation, enterprises are generally accelerating collections and becoming more cautious in purchasing. Characteristics of the demand off-season will become more apparent. Affected by weak terminal orders, some factories have begun to reduce operating rates in advance. Polyester yarn operating rate decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 61.0% and is expected to decline faster from the latter part of the month, subsequently suppressing demand for staple fiber. Reports suggest that staple fiber enterprises may take coordinated production cuts around the Spring Festival depending on inventory levels, which could boost futures prices. In the short term, weak terminal demand will continue to suppress prices, but cost-side support remains. PF March futures are expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices. Relevant Market News Production-Sales: Direct-spun polyester staple sales were polarized on Monday. As of around 3:00 PM, average production-sales were 60%. Figures for some factories were: 35%, 50%, 50%, 140%, 30%, 50%, 50%, 70%, 30%, 49%.
PET Bottle Resin: Supply decreased while demand was weak. On the supply side, the PET bottle resin industry operating rate fell by 6.4 percentage points month-on-month to 68.4%. The industry operating rate is already at a low level for the same period in previous years. With planned shutdowns still pending for units like Yisheng Hainan, supply is expected to continue contracting. On the demand side, the current period is the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, and the scope for production recovery in January-February is expected to be limited. Due to sustained production cuts in the PET bottle resin industry since Q4 of last year and further cuts around this year's Spring Festival, the industry has been continuously destocking. Recent spot supply is tight, basis has strengthened, and processing margins have expanded rapidly. PR March futures are expected to fluctuate in line with raw material prices, with a medium-term support zone of 5850-5950.
Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fell slightly on Monday, while spot prices were mostly steady. The commodity market was mostly lower on Monday, indicating a weakening market sentiment. Fundamentally, recent maintenance schedules for soda ash have decreased. Last week's soda ash output increased by 22,000 tons week-on-week to 775,000 tons. The recent output recovery has increased supply-side pressure. Downstream demand declined slightly. The latest alkali plant inventory decreased by 31,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.544 million tons. The latest delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10,000 tons from the previous week to 387,700 tons. There were no changes in float glass production lines last week, but incidents of blocked ports in photovoltaic glass furnaces increased. The combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has recently declined, reducing demand for heavy soda ash. Demand for light soda ash remains stable for now. Purchasing enthusiasm among midstream and downstream players has weakened. Soda ash imports fell slightly to 300 tons in November, while exports dropped to 189,400 tons. Macro-wise, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase but remained below last year's levels; external macro influences are relatively favorable (weaker US dollar index, reduced trade friction concerns); domestic policy disruptions have diminished. Overall, short-term soda ash faces increased supply and weaker demand, with 'anti-involution'博弈 cooling down. Fundamentals are a drag, and soda ash is expected to trade weakly for now. On warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts decreased by 789 lots on Monday to 2,432 lots. Short-term soda ash futures are expected to trade weakly. For SA2605, intraday reference range is 1170-1200.
Glass: Glass futures fell sharply on Monday, while spot prices were mostly steady. The short-term fundamentals for glass are weak on both supply and demand, with supply pressure easing. Last week's glass production increased slightly sequentially. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved, and inventories decreased sequentially. The latest glass inventory decreased by 125,000 tons to 2.651 million tons, up 20.9% year-on-year. There were no changes in glass production lines last week. The recent daily melting capacity of glass has declined, with the latest in-operation daily melting capacity at 150,745 T/D, down approximately 4.0% year-on-year. Domestic completed floor area from January to December decreased by 18.1% year-on-year (the decline widened). Recent real estate sales data showed a slight sequential increase but remained below last year's levels. The latest number of deep-processing orders for glass increased by 0.7 days sequentially to 9.3 days. Short-term glass supply is declining, but expectations for the restart and ignition of some production lines are weighing on prices. Demand is seasonally weak. Futures prices are expected to trade weakly for now. Short-term glass futures are expected to fluctuate at low levels. For FG2605, intraday reference range is 1060-1090.
Caustic Soda: As of January 19, 2026, the SH2602 contract rose by 3 yuan/ton to 1,946 yuan/ton, while the SH2603 contract fell by 1 yuan/ton to 2,005 yuan/ton. During the night session, the main SH2603 contract fell to 1,963 yuan/ton. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price for 32% ion-membrane caustic soda was 600-675 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day's average. The procurement price for liquid caustic soda at a major local downstream alumina plant was 630 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price for 50% ion-membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1,060-1,070 yuan/ton, steady from the previous working day's average. Downstream purchasing was average, chlor-alkali enterprises faced poor sales, and influenced by the price cut from the large alumina plant's procurement, 32% liquid caustic soda prices fell, while 50% liquid caustic soda transactions were stable, with prices holding steady. Short-term caustic soda supply remains high. With liquid chlorine prices staying relatively strong and expectations of a PVC export rush, the negative feedback on operating rates is insufficient. Current demand is weak, and procurement prices from alumina enterprises have been further lowered, creating a drag on the futures market. The short-term trend is expected to remain weak. Strategy: Weak on a standalone basis. For the main SH2603 contract, reference price range is 1900-2100 yuan/ton.
PVC: As of the day session close on January 19, 2026, the PVC2605 contract fell by 2 yuan/ton to 4,801 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price basis against the main futures contract was -231 yuan/ton (weakening by 8 yuan/ton on a daily basis), the North China spot basis was -501 yuan/ton (strengthening by 2 yuan/ton daily), and the South China spot basis was -231 yuan/ton (weakening by 8 yuan/ton daily). Short-term reality versus expectation博弈 persists. Fundamentally, the supply-side operating rate is still on an upward trend sequentially, and supply pressure has not significantly eased. Positive news includes a substantial slowdown in the pace of PVC capacity additions in 2026. In the short term, the 'anti-involution' drive based on differentiated electricity prices in 2026 is expected to remain a driver for coal-chemical chain PVC. Furthermore, the cancellation of export tax rebates is favorable for exports from January to March. Short-term fundamental improvements are limited, but expectations are optimistic. Prices are expected to fluctuate. Strategy: Fluctuating on a standalone basis. For the main V2605 contract, reference price range is 4700-5000 yuan/ton.
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