Strategy closed at USD 142.80, down 1.39%.
A $1.55 million bull put spread and a $2.52 million double call sale dominated MSTR’s options tape, with the former targeting support above $140 and the latter capping upside expectations. Traders leaned bullish on balance but preferred credit collection over outright directional bets, signaling a moderately constructive view that favors resilience rather than a sharp breakout.
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Options Indicators
MSTR’s implied volatility stands at 81.43%, while its IV percentile is 37.70%, which places current volatility in a broadly neutral historical range rather than an extreme high-volatility regime. Even though the absolute IV level is high, the IV/HV ratio of 0.80 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, indicating options are not especially rich at current levels and appear relatively reasonable rather than aggressively overpriced. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.61.
Large Trades
A bullish put spread with a net credit of $1.55 million was the largest featured trade, using the December 18, 2026 expiration and expressing a moderately constructive view on MSTR. The structure sold 1,500 contracts of the 140.0 put, which was out of the money versus the $142.8 reference stock price, and bought 3,000 contracts of the 100.0 put, also out of the money. As a spread strategy, its size should be measured by the stated net credit rather than the gross leg notionals, and that $1.55 million credit indicates a premium-collecting bullish stance: the trader appears willing to bet that MSTR stays above the short 140 strike while using the long 100 put as downside protection to define risk.
A $2.52 million net-credit same-direction double call sale was the other standout trade, built by selling 3,500 contracts of the 144.0 call and 3,500 contracts of the 150.0 call expiring on September 11, 2026. Both strikes were out of the money relative to the $142.8 stock reference, and because the structure includes two short calls, it is best read as a call spread-style premium collection strategy centered on limited upside expectations and a range-bound to mildly bearish outlook. The trader collected $2.52 million upfront, signaling an intent to monetize elevated call premium while positioning for MSTR to remain below those upside levels rather than make a sharp breakout.
Overall, the large-trade flow leans bullish on balance, but with a clear preference for income-oriented structures rather than aggressive upside chasing. The dominant bullish signal comes from the favorable net imbalance in block sentiment and from bullish spreads that monetize downside support, while the notable call-selling activity tempers that optimism by showing traders are still cautious about near-term upside extension. Taken together, the block flow suggests a moderately bullish view on MSTR, with expectations for resilience above key lower strikes but not necessarily a runaway rally in the near term.
Strategy Reference
For a low assignment probability on the short put side, consider selling the 120.0 strike put with a 45–60 day expiration and an OTM probability near 80%, or use a bull put spread at 140.0/120.0 to cap margin requirements while still collecting premium around the $140 support area.
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