AI star company Anthropic is facing a major test of its listing plan. In the tech stock crash two days after the midterm elections, Nasdaq Composite constituents shed $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day, and the Anthropic IPO, once seen as a "must-buy" target, is now under pressure on both core issues of valuation and timing.
On Thursday, according to the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, people familiar with the matter said three major investors planning to participate in the IPO have explicitly stated that the $1.5 trillion target valuation may be difficult to achieve, with one believing the actual valuation could be closer to $1 trillion. At the same time, some investors directly questioned whether the roadshow can start as scheduled in the week of November 9, and market confidence in whether Anthropic can complete its listing within the year is fading rapidly.
This situation is profoundly significant for the entire market. Anthropic has deep business ties with tech giants such as Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, and its IPO was originally expected to break the historical record set by SpaceX in June this year and become the largest public offering ever. If the listing plan stalls or is forced into a steep discount, it could further weigh on sentiment in the already fragile AI sector and put pressure on the broader market that is heavily weighted in tech stocks.
Market "bloodbath," AI confidence faces its harshest test
The trigger for this round of tech stock selling was this week's midterm election results. The results brought a group of AI policy skeptics into the center of power, and multiple states passed moratoriums that could delay U.S. data center construction, directly hitting the core of the AI infrastructure investment thesis.
In the following two trading days, AI-related assets were sold off collectively. More than 50 S&P 1500 tech stocks in the Nasdaq fell more than 10% in a single day. Data center and computing power concept stocks such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN led the declines, with each having halved in market value over the past month. Credit default swap spreads covering CoreWeave and SpaceX both hit record highs, and the market-implied default expectations for the coming years rose significantly.
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said the tech sector's relative decline against the S&P 500 over the past month reached 10.7%, the most extreme single-month underperformance since May 2002. He described the current selloff as "uncomfortable but not unusual," while warning that "the rubber band is being stretched tighter and tighter." Vanda Research data shows retail selling pressure is the strongest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Microsoft also tightened regulatory oversight during the same period on some data center projects of emerging cloud service providers such as Nebius, IREN, and Nscale, further intensifying market concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.
Valuation disagreements surface, investors demand bigger discounts
Anthropic originally planned to complete its listing in the week before Thanksgiving, raising up to $100 billion, corresponding to a valuation of about $1.5 trillion. Earlier this year, the market once expected its valuation could reach as high as $2 trillion.
Now, according to Reuters citing four people familiar with the matter, some investors have already regarded $1.5 trillion as a valuation ceiling rather than a reasonable baseline, and are demanding a larger pricing discount before they are willing to lock in subscription commitments. Investors' concerns stem not only from market volatility but also from scrutiny of Anthropic's fundamentals — the company continues to report quarterly losses and has undertaken large-scale capital commitments to AI infrastructure construction partners.
Investors are also waiting for October revenue data that Anthropic left blank in its latest S-1 amendment, to assess whether the company has reaccelerated after a slowdown in growth in recent months. The absence of this key data makes it harder for institutional investors to make large bets in the current market environment.
According to the Wall Street Journal, another major investor said bluntly that even if the market rebounds, persuading institutional investors who have just suffered losses in this selloff to once again make heavy bets on the AI sector remains a huge challenge. This investor did not rule out the possibility that Anthropic may postpone its listing.
List or wait? Anthropic faces a dilemma
Anthropic executives and their advisers are expected to hold meetings in the coming days to discuss follow-up arrangements for the IPO. According to people familiar with the matter, the company deliberately avoided publicly committing to a specific timetable throughout the preparation process in order to retain flexibility for adjustments. As of September 30, the company had $146.6 billion in cash on its books.
Under external pressure, Anthropic faces multiple possible paths: proceed with the listing at a lower valuation, reduce the size of the fundraising, or simply postpone until market conditions improve.
However, postponing the listing is not without cost. A delayed decision could further intensify concerns about the health of the AI ecosystem, especially against the backdrop of an already clear political signal that data center construction is being constrained. At the same time, as one of the highest-valued AI companies, if Anthropic is seen as struggling to complete financing, it would have a negative spillover effect on the overall market valuation of heavily weighted large tech companies.
By contrast, the experience of AI competitor OpenAI also confirms the cooling of the current financing environment. According to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI's latest funding round has so far completed only about $11 billion, less than half of its initial target of $30 billion, and the actual transaction valuation was also below previous expectations, settling at $1.25 trillion.
Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, remains cautiously optimistic about the market's long-term outlook: "These companies will eventually become part of the future, they will eventually go public, and investor interest still exists. Private market valuations have been rising for a long time, and some pullback now is normal." But in the current market conditions, whether this optimism can support Anthropic in completing its listing at its desired price remains to be tested.
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