The timeline for US-Iran nuclear negotiations remains unclear, disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, and for ordinary Iranians, even if US sanctions exemptions bring short-term oil revenue, the path to economic recovery remains distant.
According to reports, US President Trump announced on social media on Monday the 29th that US-Iran "talks will be held tomorrow in Doha, Qatar." However, Iran quickly dampened expectations for Tuesday's talks. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated Monday evening that Iran has no plans to negotiate with the US in the coming days, and the expert delegation Iran is sending to Doha this week is unrelated to the US delegation. The significant discrepancy in information from both sides casts uncertainty over the prospects for peace talks.
Meanwhile, the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz is becoming another front outside the negotiation table. According to US media, US officials revealed that the US and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, and vessels can currently pass freely through the strait. While international crude oil prices turned higher during Monday's session due to the US-Iran agreement to halt mutual attacks, issues such as strait transit fees, whether the recovery in Iranian oil exports can be sustained, and whether the Iranian government can convert foreign exchange income into domestic economic recovery momentum all constitute core risk exposures for the current market.
Strait Transit Fee Dispute: From Bilateral Issue to Multilateral Game
The issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz is evolving from a bilateral diplomatic dispute into a multilateral game affecting the global energy trade landscape.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi revealed on social media this Monday that Iran has held its first talks with Oman regarding the future management mechanism of the strait. Reports indicate that Oman has informed European officials that pre-conflict transit rules are no longer sustainable, and transiting vessels may need to pay certain fees. Omani officials publicly insist they will adhere to international maritime law.
In response, US Secretary of State Rubio stated clearly in Bahrain last week that any form of transit fee or charging mechanism is unacceptable. The US, Europe, and Gulf Arab states are generally alarmed by this development, believing that setting a precedent could be emulated by other countries, thereby increasing global energy transportation costs.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi took a hardline stance during his visit to Iraq last Sunday, publicly stating that Iran bears "sole responsibility" for restoring normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz and warning that any external intervention risks escalation. Before the conflict, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas was transported via this strait.
Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Chicago-based Karobaar Capital LP, said, "The market is increasingly inclined to view these situational fluctuations as tactical rather than structural changes. Until a fundamental shift occurs, traders are happy to trade against the moves in both rallies and declines."
$8 to $10 Billion Oil Windfall Insufficient to Fill Economic Chasm
The Trump administration's sanctions waiver issued to Iran last week, allowing Iran to sell oil and settle in US dollars, has opened a window for Tehran to obtain much-needed foreign exchange. According to The Wall Street Journal, despite recent ongoing conflicts, Iranian oil exports have begun to rise. Analysts estimate that from oil sales alone, Iran could gain up to $10 billion in revenue within the next two months.
Gregory Brew, a senior Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, estimates the value of this oil sales waiver to Iran over 60 days to be between $8 billion and $10 billion. He noted, "In the short term, this is a windfall, but it's not enough to restart the entire economy. The war has caused massive damage to industry and infrastructure, and the government needs to convince people that peace can last and airstrikes won't return."
However, this income is still a drop in the bucket compared to Iran's reconstruction needs. Official Iranian estimates put conflict-related losses at around $270 billion; a UN report notes that about 150,000 civilian buildings have been damaged, including 51,000 residential units in Tehran. Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that after attacks on gas processing plants, refineries, petrochemical centers, and export infrastructure, repair costs for Iran's energy sector could be as high as $19 billion.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Iran's GDP will contract by 6.1% this year, which would be the most severe recession since the 1980s; the inflation rate is projected to average nearly 70% for the year, with the year-on-year inflation rate reaching 88.6% in June. Since the conflict began, over a million Iranians have lost their jobs, the currency has depreciated to historic lows, and months of internet blackouts have severely impacted the e-commerce sector. Last week, bread prices in Tehran jumped significantly, with the prices of two common traditional bread types nearly doubling.
Public Confidence Hard to Rebuild, Oil Windfall May Again Become "Disconnected"
Public skepticism in Iran regarding this round of oil windfall is deeply rooted in historical experience. After the 2015 nuclear deal was reached, sanctions relief did help Iran increase oil exports and reconnect with parts of the global trade network, but the gains were short-lived and unevenly distributed—unemployment remained high, and most families saw little improvement in wages, employment, or purchasing power. Trump's subsequent withdrawal from the deal and reimposition of sanctions during his first term erased those improvements.
Some Iranians fear history will repeat itself, believing that even if a deal is reached, the relief will be too brief to meaningfully improve daily life. Others worry that new oil revenue will be directed first to the regime and its allies, rather than to ordinary households.
A self-employed technician in Isfahan province told US media he expects a deal to have minimal impact on ordinary people's lives, stating, "The government will just keep the new money for itself." He even said bluntly, "We are more afraid of a ceasefire, a deal, the regime surviving, than we are of the war itself."
A 26-year-old Iranian woman who lost her marketing job during the conflict said she has drastically cut spending and has no confidence even if a deal holds temporarily. "Right now, I really can't plan anything for the future," she said.
The head of an auto parts importer said that during the war he had to lay off staff, sell inventory to pay debts, and drastically cut costs to keep operations afloat; while a temporary deal has brought a moment of calm, he is still waiting for a final agreement before he can resume normal planning. "Planning is almost impossible; we are forced to keep taking risks."
All this means that Tehran faces ongoing internal and external pressure in its negotiations with Washington—it needs both deeper sanctions relief and time for the economy to genuinely recover in order to support the regime's domestic legitimacy.
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