Third-quarter revenue at CATL maintained high growth, with profit rising year-on-year but pulling back quarter-on-quarter.
The company explained that the earnings fluctuation stemmed mainly from a phased shift in product mix, as well as the impact of adjustments to consumption tax and export tax rebate policies. It is currently communicating with customers to share costs and continues to push forward the rollout of new technologies and new products.
Multiple institutions believe the company's profit change this time is a short-term disturbance rather than a weakening of long-term fundamentals.
Changjiang Securities pointed out that demand structure in the lithium battery industry is becoming increasingly diversified, with European power, emerging market power, and overseas energy storage businesses continuing to grow rapidly, giving the industry ample certainty for growth. It expects compound growth in lithium battery demand to remain above 20% through 2030.
Short-term production scheduling volatility is mainly due to inventory strategy adjustments, and conditions are expected to improve as lithium carbonate prices stabilize and off-season industry data provides validation. At the same time, the pressure from tax and fee rollbacks is broadly controllable. As the share of overseas products and system-level products continues to rise, the tax burden impact will be continuously diluted.
CITIC Securities also stated that through continued negotiations with downstream customers, the cost pressure brought by tax rate adjustments is expected to be shared jointly going forward, and CATL's medium- to long-term allocation value is outstanding.
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