As Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX.US) commences its roadshow for its initial public offering, one of its lead underwriters, Morgan Stanley, has presented a highly optimistic forecast to major institutional investors, projecting the company's revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $2.7 trillion.
The company began meetings with potential investors on Thursday and plans to list next week, aiming to raise $75 billion.
Financial data shows SpaceX generated revenue of $18.67 billion in 2025, an increase of approximately 33% from $14.02 billion the previous year; however, the company shifted from a net profit of $791 million the previous year to a net loss of $4.94 billion over the same period.
Notably, both primary lead underwriters—Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—identify the artificial intelligence business as the central growth driver for SpaceX's future.
According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, SpaceX's total revenue is projected to reach approximately $160 billion by 2028 and grow to around $330 billion by 2030.
Within this, AI-related revenue is forecast to hit $190 billion by 2030, accounting for more than half of total revenue.
Data indicates this business segment generated only $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, suggesting the potential for explosive growth in the coming years.
Goldman Sachs has presented an even more aggressive forecast.
The bank projects SpaceX's total revenue will reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI contributing $322 billion—a more than 100-fold increase from 2025—representing nearly 70% of total revenue.
In contrast, the traditional rocket launch business is expected to contribute only about $8 billion in revenue, with communications services generating roughly $140 billion.
This projection model implies that, in Goldman Sachs' view, the future SpaceX will not primarily be a rocket manufacturing and satellite operations company, but rather a technology giant with artificial intelligence as its core profit engine.
A total of 21 investment banks are participating in the underwriting syndicate for this IPO.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have secured the first and second lead underwriter positions, respectively, positioning them to receive the largest shares of the total underwriting fees, which amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.
Beyond these two firms, other major Wall Street banks including Bank of America Securities, Citigroup, and JPMorgan are also involved in the offering.
Based on the projection models presented by these two top-tier investment banks to institutional investors, the AI business has become the critical variable for the capital markets in assessing SpaceX's long-term value.
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