Tomorrow, July 17th, at 24:00, a new window for adjusting the domestic refined oil retail price ceiling will open, with multiple institutions forecasting a likely price hike.
During the current domestic refined oil pricing cycle, international crude oil prices initially fell before rising. Consequently, the referenced domestic crude oil change rate shifted from negative to positive and has continued to expand within positive territory.
An analyst noted that in this pricing cycle (from July 3rd, 24:00 to July 17th, 24:00), international crude oil prices have risen significantly due to market concerns over control disputes in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sequential increase in the average crude oil price. This has caused the domestic reference crude oil change rate to turn positive, creating an expectation for an upward adjustment in the refined oil retail price ceiling.
Monitoring model calculations indicate that as of the close on July 15th, the ninth working day of the current pricing cycle, the referenced crude oil change rate was 5.58%. Based on this rate, the corresponding increase for domestic gasoline and diesel prices would be approximately 245 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 0.18 yuan per liter.
It is important to note that while industry predictions widely anticipate an increase in the refined oil retail price ceiling, the final adjustment result will be subject to the official announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission.
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