International gold prices fell on Tuesday, July 28, as they met resistance and declined. Although there were brief signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, the risk of continued conflict remains high. An Iranian attack on a US military base and Houthi claims of striking a Saudi oil tanker limited the upside for gold prices. This prevented them from breaking above the 30-day moving average resistance, and they closed below the short-term moving averages. The increased bearish momentum suggests that prices may revisit the trendline support near $3960 and could even risk falling to the 100-day moving average at $3660.
On July 29, gold opened at $4078.75 per ounce in Asia, initially hitting a session high of $4081.64 before declining to trade around $4045. Prices fell further during the European session, entering a range-bound consolidation, and hit a daily low of $4011.80 in early US trading. Gold eventually closed at $4028.44, with a daily range of $69.84, down $50.31, or 1.23%.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, July 29, international gold opened weaker. The continued conflict in the Middle East and OPEC+'s plan to pause production increases after September boosted oil prices, opening higher and recovering Tuesday's losses, which weighed on gold prices. In the short term, gold prices still face downward pressure.
Where to focus next
The focus will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision early Thursday morning and the US June PCE inflation data due Thursday evening for further policy signals. The market currently expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged. After Trump's early-week support for Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, calling for US rates to be the lowest globally, the subsequent monetary policy press conference from Powell is also expected to lean dovish. Additionally, the market expects a decline in PCE, which would reduce expectations for rate hikes. Therefore, the outlook for the week suggests a higher probability of consolidation or a low-level rebound. However, if the data, the decision, and the commentary are contrary to expectations, gold prices could continue to fall.
Technical analysis
On the weekly chart, gold prices have been trading in a consolidation range over the past few weeks, showing a tendency to bottom out and climb. Last week, the price formed a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting some potential for a rebound this week and beyond. However, gold is still trading below the 60-week moving average resistance, and the technical indicators remain bearish without a clear signal of strengthening, indicating that the market may continue to adjust or even decline further. On the downside, support can be watched at the trendline level of $3960/30, where a bullish bounce could be expected, or a further decline to the 100-week moving average near $3650, which could offer a stronger buying opportunity for a larger rebound.
On the daily chart, gold prices have filled the gap from the start of the week and are now trading below the mid-Bollinger band and the short-term moving averages, with bears in control. The 100-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross, which suggests a risk of breaking below the $3900 level in the future. Therefore, for trading, the short-term outlook is range-bound with a downside bias. The following are initial intraday support and resistance levels to consider. Actual entry and exit points will be based on real-time account notifications.
Gold: Support is at $4000 or $3960; resistance is at $4045 or $4070.
Silver: Support is at $56.10 or $55.70; resistance is at $57.60 or $58.40.
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