Several international institutions have recently raised their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China. The World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased their projections by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points, respectively. A common focus among these institutions is China's strong export performance, particularly in high-tech sectors.
The World Bank, in its latest China Economic Update released on December 11, revised its 2025 growth forecast upward by 0.4 percentage points, citing China's diversified export markets as a key factor supporting resilience. Similarly, the ADB, in its *Asian Development Outlook 2025* report published on December 10, raised its forecast by 0.1 percentage points, attributing the adjustment to robust export performance and sustained fiscal policy support.
Data shows that China's trade surplus in goods exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first 11 months of 2025. Reuters reported that China's exports to Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia all saw double-digit growth in November 2025, contributing to the record trade surplus. Goldman Sachs Research noted that despite U.S. tariff pressures, China's exports remain strong, with full-year growth expected at around 8%, demonstrating global competitiveness across multiple industries.
Goldman Sachs also highlighted steady growth in China's high-tech exports, a trend that has persisted for years. "Despite U.S. tariffs, China's exports of semiconductors, automobiles, and auto parts continue to expand, reinforcing resilient export-led growth," analysts said.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva recently commended China's targeted measures to boost domestic demand, including strengthening social security, expanding elderly and childcare support, and addressing excessive competition. These efforts, she noted, enhance medium-term growth prospects.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) upgraded China's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 5% in its latest outlook, citing AI-driven productivity gains and consumption expansion as key drivers. Deloitte's 2025 outlook report emphasized sector-specific opportunities in finance, energy, and telecommunications, predicting policy support could spur a domestic demand rebound.
Barclays highlighted China's abundant investment opportunities, driven by stimulus measures and industrial restructuring. The bank noted China's leadership in high-tech sectors like solar panels, lithium batteries, and wind power equipment, stating, "As the world's second-largest economy, China deserves a place in diversified investment portfolios."
Goldman Sachs analysts pointed to China's reaffirmed goal of reaching moderately developed economy status by 2035, suggesting balanced growth in both GDP and income levels.
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