On July 6th, the US Dollar Index broke through resistance and moved above 100.50, closing the month and week at a relatively high level.
Looking at the chart, the medium-term uptrend for the dollar remains intact, and it is highly probable that this move is not yet complete. Key resistance levels to watch are at 102.80 and 103.20, with a potential extreme target around 104.60.
Attention should be paid to a potential reversal lower once the rally matures. A clear downward signal emerging after the medium-term rebound peaks could signal the start of a major, long-term decline for the dollar.
For this week, with the index above 100.00, the perspective remains one of a continuing medium-term rebound. The reaction at the aforementioned key resistance levels will be crucial for determining the next move.
A decisive break below the 100.00 psychological level would require a fresh analysis to assess the potential for a direct decline. This overarching framework is for reference only, and trading carries inherent risks.
The Euro continued its volatile decline in June, setting new lows, which aligned with the bearish framework outlined earlier in the month.
The medium-term bearish view for the Euro was favored since May, though a shift in direction on June 15th proved incorrect. With the low June close, the analysis for July reverts to the bearish framework from May and early June.
The outlook remains bearish for the Euro while it trades below 1.1540. A sustained break above this level would be needed to alter the primary directional bias.
This week, key resistances to monitor are at 1.1490 and 1.1540. With the currency above 1.1390, a short-term rebound appears more likely, presenting opportunities to sell the Euro on rallies.
No specific trading recommendations are provided for today, only the broader analytical framework for reference. Trading involves risk.
Following its stabilization and rise on June 11th, Gold was expected to undergo a secondary retest, but the depth of the subsequent pullback exceeded expectations as new lows were printed.
Despite the new low, the prior analytical view is maintained. The medium-term outlook for Gold remains bullish above 3890, with a target near the 5000 area.
Last week, Gold rebounded again from around the 3940 low. While the rebound lacked strong momentum, the failure to extend declines is a positive sign.
This week, resistance near 4220 is likely to prompt a short-term downward correction. The strategy is to wait for such a pullback to establish long positions.
Alternatively, trading within a low-range consolidation pattern is possible in the near term, with short positions being tactical and long positions held for a longer duration, in line with the anticipated medium-term bullish wave.
In summary: The medium-term view for Gold is bullish above 3890, targeting the 5000 region. A break below 3890 would necessitate a re-analysis.
The current area offers limited downside potential, but once a bottoming pattern is confirmed, the upside potential is significant and worth anticipating. Key support to watch is at 4030. This framework is for reference only, and trading carries risk.
Silver continued its volatile decline in June, not only testing the prior low of 62.00 but also establishing a new low around 56.50.
From a chart perspective, the medium to long-term outlook for Silver remains biased towards the upside, with targets at 80.70 and 92.50, and a more distant objective near 101.30.
However, the formation of a solid base will likely require several more rebounds and consolidation phases before a substantial rally begins.
For this week, a flexible approach trading within a low-range consolidation is suitable for short-term moves, while the core strategy on a swing basis should focus on buying on dips. This framework is for reference only, and trading involves risk.
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