As of August 28, the gold market has entered a typical period of intense pre-event positioning, with bulls and bears locked in a fierce tug-of-war at the intraday level. At this stage, the market's entire trading focus remains pinned on this year's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, with particular attention on the upcoming keynote speech from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, which is expected to directly dictate the pricing of rate expectations for the September FOMC meeting.
With short-term U.S. inflation and employment data remaining solid, the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance is well-supported, which continues to exert periodic downward pressure on gold prices. At the same time, long-term factors including U.S. Treasury support operations, concerns over dollar creditworthiness, geopolitical risks, and global central bank gold purchases have firmly underpinned the metal's floor. This dynamic has created a high-level consolidation pattern across the market, characterized by resistance overhead, support below, and a market awaiting a decisive breakout.
At the core of the current bull-bear struggle lies a fundamental conflict between near-term Fed tightening expectations and gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and essential store of value. These two forces are currently holding each other in check, rendering a sustained single-directional trend unlikely in the near term.
From a technical analysis perspective, a bearish "evening star" pattern has emerged on the daily chart, but the bears have yet to fully flex their muscles. All moving averages have now converged and turned downward, signaling a weakening market tone. The next key trigger is a definitive break below the 10-day moving average support; once this level gives way, the downside is likely to target the daily Bollinger Band mid-band.
On the 4-hour chart, the lower Bollinger Band has already opened, though the candlesticks have not yet closed consistently below this level—indicating a high-level bearish bias rather than a confirmed one-way sell-off. However, the hourly chart has clearly established a downtrend channel, making short-term bearishness a reasonable outlook, even if a full-blown trend requires more time to confirm.
Given this backdrop, today's trading strategy is straightforward: treat the late-night rebound high of 4620 as the key short-term resistance level for bearish positioning. As long as prices fail to reclaim the 4600-4620 zone, expectations remain for a gradual grind lower. Downside support targets are to be monitored at 4550, followed by 4520; if bearish momentum strengthens during the late session, the decline could extend toward the 4450 and even 4400 levels.
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