PayPal: One Of The Best Plays On The Secular Growth Trend Of Digital Payments

seekingalpha2021-06-14

Summary PayPal is a leading fintech company that benefits immensely from the secular growth trend in the digital payments industry. Its growth history is impressive and momentum is not showing any ...

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Comments

wallence82
2021-06-15
wallence82
$400 to the moon
Showcase
2021-06-14
Showcase
Nice
kevinlaisq
2021-06-14
kevinlaisq
Please comment back and like
- Showcase:
  Nice
- Kinoshita:
  No objection
Alfred1007
2021-06-14
Alfred1007
Looks good and promising
- Alfred1007:
  here you go!
- kevinlaisq:
  comment backkk pls
syleo
2021-06-14
syleo
?
- starbu:
  cool
- syleo:
  ?
ZachTeo
2021-06-14
ZachTeo
To the moon

Leave a comment

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Its major competitors are other payment technology companies, such asVisa(V),Mastercard(MA) orAdyen(OTCPK:ADYEY). It currently has a market capitalization of about $309 billion, a smaller value than MasterCard or Visa.\nPayPal’s core business is the offering of payment solutions to merchants and consumers, operating globally. At the end of 2020, it had about 377 million active accounts, of which some 348 million consumer accounts and 29 million merchant accounts, more than double the number of active accounts at the end of 2015.\nSource: PayPal.\nThe company’s revenue stream comes mainly from charging fees for some completed payment transactions, while generally it does not charge consumers to fund or withdraw money from their PayPal account. It also generates revenues from currency conversion and instant transfers from the PayPal or Venmo accounts to debit cards or bank accounts. For its merchant clients, it also offers access to certain credit products for small and medium-sized merchants, increasing its engagement its clients and providing finance for clients that possibly would not get loans from traditional banks or other lending providers.\nSecular Growth\nAs I’ve analyzed in a previous article on “Visa: Despite Earnings Dip, Secular Growth Prospects Remain Strong,” the global payments industry has a very good growth track record and future growth prospects are quite strong.\nDuring the past few years, consumers and businesses have increasingly adopted new payment methods beyond cash and the rise of e-commerce has also been an important growth driver of digital payments across the globe. Revenues for the industry have grown roughly at 7% per year over recent years, to a total of just under $2 trillion in 2019, according to McKinsey data, and this growth is only expected to accelerate in the future as digital payments continue to increase their market share as a percentage of total banking revenues.\nSource: McKinsey.\nThis background has been very supportive for PayPal’s growth prospects, as one of the leading companies in this industry. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues have increased at a compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] of 20.8% during the past five years, a much higher growth rate than the global payments industry and also above its largest competitors like Visa and MasterCard.\nMoreover, while recently the growth path of digital payments has changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, that has affected negatively the growth of the global payments industry, PayPal has remained on a strong growth path because its business is clearly more exposed to digital transactions rather than physical payments. This means that the pandemic has barely impacted its business, while it has been a significant setback for other companies, such as American Express (AXP) or MasterCard that are more exposed to cross-border transactions.\nNevertheless, the Covid-19 seems to be positive for the long-term growth of the industry because digital payments became more adopted last year and people will likely use less cash for payment transactions in the future, accelerating even further the growth of digital payments across the world.\nOver the next few years, growth is expected to resume quite rapidly and should even be higher than in the recent past. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global digital payments industry is expected to have a revenue CAGR of 13.7% during 2021-26, which is almost double the growth in recent years. This clearly shows that digital payments is a secular growth industry, being a very good backdrop for the companies operating in this industry for years to come.\nTaking this environment into account, PayPal is clearly in a very good position to maintain a solid growth path for many years to come, being potentially one of the major winners of the global shift to digital payments and e-commerce.\nTaking this background into account, it is not surprising that PayPal has strong growth ambitions for the coming years, aiming to generate more than $50 billion in revenue by 2025 (more than double the 2020 revenues) both from growth of its existing business, higher customer engagement and new offerings that will increase PayPal’s total addressable market.\nPayPal expects to double the number of active accounts over the next five years and triple the volumes transacted, which seems to be achievable considering its growth history and the strong growth prospects of the global payments industry.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis means that $50 billion in revenue by 2025 represents CAGR of about 20% during 2020-25, showing that PayPal has very good growth prospects in coming years. Moreover, as the company expects to improve a little bit its business margins during this period, its earnings are expected to increase at CAGR of 22% over the next five years and generate more than $40 billion in free cash flow.\nFinancial Overview\nRegarding its financial performance, PayPal has a very good track record with revenues and earnings growing quite rapidly over the past few years. Indeed, from 201 to 2020, PayPal’s revenues increased at a CAGR of around 20% and its earnings increased at CAGR of 31%, a very impressive achievement and much better than established peers like Visa and MasterCard.\nMore recently, the company’s growth was not interrupted by the coronavirus as the secular growth trends of e-commerce and cash displacement accelerated with the pandemic, being a very strong tailwind for the company’s growth.\nIn 2020, PayPal recorded record financial figures regarding its revenues, volumes, net new active accounts and earnings. Indeed, PayPal’s revenues increased by 20.8% YoY to $21.5 billion, a level that is very close to Visa’s annual revenues showing that PayPal has achieved a very large size despite being a much younger company. Beyond higher revenues, its business margins and free cash flow generation also improved, a very good performance compared to its peers that rely more on debit and credit card payments.\nSource: PayPal.\nThis positive financial performance was justified by the shift to online shopping and transactions due to Covid-19, but also due to PayPal’s new offerings such as the option to buy and hold digital currencies during the last quarter of the year. Its net income amounted to $4.2 billion, an increase of 70% YoY, boosted by organic growth and gains on some investments and its free cash flow was about $5 billion, or 23% of revenue, which shows that PayPal has a very good cash flow generation capacity.\nDuring thefirst quarter of 2021, PayPal has maintained an impressive operating momentum with volumes up by 50% YoY and revenue up by 31% YoY. Active accounts grew by 21% to 392 million, while it added 14.5 million net new accounts during the quarter. Its operating margin improved to 27.7% (non-GAAP) and non-GAAP EPS grew by 84% YoY and free cash flow amounted to $1.54 billion or 25% of its quarterly revenue.\nFor the full year 2021, its guidance was revised upwards with Q1 earnings and PayPal now expects to grow revenues to about $25.7 billion, which represents annual growth of about 20% in constant currencies, EPS growth around 21% YoY and about $6 billion in free cash flow.\nThis clearly shows that PayPal’s growth momentum is not showing any sign of slowdown over the coming quarters, boding quite well to reach its 2025 targets probably ahead of schedule if it continues to grow at this pace.\nHowever, this is not currently expected from the sell-side, given that according toanalysts’ estimates, revenue growth is expected to be around 20-21% during the next 2-3 years and then slow down a little bit to less than 20% in 2024 and 2025. This is in-line with PayPal’s own targets, which means that there is some potential upside to estimates if it continues to execute well on its growth initiatives during the next few years.\nSource: SeekingAlpha.\nRegarding its capital allocation, PayPal’s has used its cash flow generation capacity to finance several acquisitions and repurchase its own shares, while capex spending has been relatively limited as expected for a technology company that operates digitally. Going forward, this strategy is not expected to change much as PayPal should continue to invest in fintech innovation through PayPal Ventures, while share buybacks will be the main way to return capital to shareholders even though the company may decide to start distributing dividends in the coming years.\nSource: PayPal.\nConclusion\nPayPal has a very good business and its growth prospects are very strong, both from industry tailwinds and its own growth initiatives. I think this is one of the best ways to play the secular growth trend of digital payments, as PayPal’s business model is completely focused on digital channels while its closest competitors Visa or Mastercard still rely significantly in physical transactions.\nThis profile justifies PayPal’s premium valuation, considering that it is currentlytrading at about 57x forward earnings, while Visa and Mastercard are trading at between 42-47x earnings. Regarding my personal portfolio, I’ve recently rebalanced my positions and PayPal is now my largest holding on the digital payments theme, as I see this company as a very compelling long-term play in this industry.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":184228662,"gmtCreate":1623716490156,"gmtModify":1704209284725,"author":{"id":"3564307944903490","authorId":"3564307944903490","name":"wallence82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dea005ab03386f13fa25c505b9a3221a","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3564307944903490","idStr":"3564307944903490"},"htmlText":"$400 to the moon","listText":"$400 to the moon","text":"$400 to the 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