Senior corn market analyst Zhen Yanan from Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd.
**Market Overview**: Based on new grain listing considerations in September, the market initially expected corn prices to decline rapidly. However, as September nears its end, the market has shown certain resistance to decline, primarily due to continuous rainy weather slowing new grain market entry and downstream rigid demand. Looking at the October market, new grain from corn-producing regions nationwide will be concentrated for listing. Before mid-October, high-quality corn spot has rigid demand, and spot prices are expected to be relatively resistant to decline with limited downward space. Prices may accelerate their decline in mid-to-late October.
According to data monitoring by Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd., the national average corn price on September 26 was 2,300.81 yuan/ton, down 0.17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, representing a 0.01% decline, a 0.10% month-on-month increase, and a 10.25% year-on-year increase.
**New Production Season Encounters Continuous Rainy Weather, Corn Listing Process and Quality Both Adversely Affected**
Since July, the Huang-Huai region has experienced widespread high temperatures with little rainfall. Drought conditions developed rapidly, especially in southeastern Henan and northern Anhui. Local farmers actively engaged in drought resistance, and areas with better irrigation conditions provided irrigation to alleviate drought. However, the drought also slowed corn growth progress. Entering September, new grain began listing successively in southern Henan, Heze in Shandong, and Anhui. However, continuous rain caused slow increases in corn market supply, with quality issues including aflatoxin contamination. Continuous rain has hindered corn harvesting, making harvester operations difficult or impossible. Currently, some corn in southern Henan has begun molding while still on stalks. Weather forecasts predict continued rain for the next seven days, preventing local corn harvest increases. North China corn concentrated supply is expected after the National Day holiday, delayed 10-15 days compared to previous years.
**Poor Old-New Transition, North China Market Supply Below Last Year's Levels, High-Quality Grain Prices Remain Firm**
In September, grain traders in major producing areas had limited old corn inventory, with poor new grain succession, providing strong support for corn prices from the supply side. As of September 26, taking Henan market in North China as an example, old corn for feed was priced at 1.25 yuan/jin, with some reaching as high as 1.29 yuan/jin, compared to mainstream transaction prices of 1.22-1.23 yuan/jin at the beginning of the month. Affected by new grain toxin contamination, high-quality feed corn appeared slightly tight, with some local traders cross-regionally transporting small quantities of Northeast grain to supplement high-quality corn supply. Henan feed enterprises, considering corn supply and toxin issues, increased wheat purchases to replace corn usage and negotiated guaranteed non-toxic corn transactions beyond posted prices. For deep processing demand, taking Shandong deep processing enterprises as an example, as of September 26, the average corn purchase price by Shandong deep processing enterprises was 2,353 yuan/ton, with 570 trucks arriving that day, compared to approximately 2,000 trucks in the same period last year. Over the past half month, enterprise arrivals have been relatively low, with deep processing enterprise inventories continuously declining, creating inventory replenishment demand for corn.
**Sales Region Feed Enterprises Previously Reduced Corn Inventory, Rigid Replenishment Demand Supports Market**
From feed enterprise inventory days perspective, considering new grain listing, feed enterprises continuously reduced raw material corn inventory. However, affected by current rainfall and previous drought, North China and Northeast producing regions experienced varying degrees of listing delays and slow supply increases. Currently, Central China feed enterprises rely on previous contracts, rotation grain, auction grain, and producing region corn as sources, with spot supplies slightly tight, supporting sales region prices that have not declined as expected but instead shown relative firmness, especially for high-quality corn spot resources.
**Port Corn Inventory Continues Declining, Quantities Significantly Below Last Year's Levels**
Monitoring data from Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd. shows that as of September 26, weekly corn inventory at six northern ports dropped to 1.488 million tons, compared to 1.981 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 493,000 tons or 24.89%. Taking Bayuquan as an example, after April 2025, port inventory showed very smooth decline, with port prices showing volatile but strong trends. Entering August, weekly port arrivals were continuously below 30,000 tons, while shipments increased. During the week of August 30-September 5, Bayuquan corn shipments reached 122,600 tons, causing continuous decline in total Bayuquan port inventory. As of September 26, Bayuquan port inventory was 284,100 tons, compared to 700,000 tons in the same period last year.
**Deep Processing Industry Operations Slightly Increased, Corn Demand Slightly Higher**
As of September 25, weekly corn starch industry operating load was 58.09%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous week. Corn starch industry operating load showed slight recovery, with slight variations across different regions. In North China, as new season corn gradually entered the market, cost and loss pressures eased, enterprise resumption enthusiasm increased, leading to industry operating load recovery and slight increases in corn demand. China's food and industrial ethanol industry operating load rate was 43.51%, up 2.31 percentage points from the previous week. Effective operating load rate was 55.34%, up 2.94 percentage points from the previous week.
**New Crop Faces Imminent Supply Increase, Short-term Supply-Demand Mismatch Difficult to Sustain, October Corn Prices May Decline**
Comprehensive analysis of the above bullish support factors, Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd. believes these may be difficult to sustain in October. Looking at future North China weather, October rainfall will decrease, with corn in Shandong, Hebei and other areas expected to gradually increase market supply, supplementing regional corn supply. Northeast new grain listing will increase, both filling local high-quality corn gaps and supplementing port corn supply. On the demand side, after certain rigid inventory replenishment, considering the premise of concentrated new grain listing, the possibility of incremental storage is minimal. Comprehensively, before mid-October, corn prices under gradual supply increases and rigid inventory replenishment, high-quality corn still maintains certain resistance to decline. However, after mid-month, with comprehensive new grain listing nationwide, corn prices may gradually decline. Based on market expectations from Sublime China Information Co.,Ltd. research, October North China corn price range may decline from 2,260-2,400 yuan/ton to 2,200-2,300 yuan/ton.
**Risk Warning**: Abnormal weather conditions, policy adjustments, etc.
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