中信证券:“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演,存在这三种情况

中信证券研究2022-02-26

作者:崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因,而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看,地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下,我们认为 1)本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响,但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家,预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2)俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击,美股美债或将小幅震荡。3)油价或呈倒U型走势,顶部持续时长...

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