中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况

中信证券研究2022-02-26

作者：崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看，地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下，我们认为 1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Futre
2022-02-28
Futre
贊👍
HKpoh
2022-02-27
HKpoh
[財迷] [財迷]
winwin_Tan
2022-02-27
winwin_Tan
ok
xxbbew
2022-02-26
xxbbew
ok
HCBICE
2022-02-26
HCBICE
[財迷]

Leave a comment

179

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142065755?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/388c64683f823c97b25a4d2468897ece","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-02-26 20:34","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1142065755","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况","media":"中信证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看，地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下，我们认为 1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzNTE3NDMwNw==&mid=2247559395&idx=2&sn=894d264460490e441c6bf8e0a9b6f1f0&chksm=fa8a252fcdfdac39f028e3a67340fd57f2f3dc2c2cd13353a2d9b3306be3327034150b6fd255&scene=126&&sessionid=1645850420\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"zxzqyj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：“俄乌冲突”演变趋势推演，存在这三种情况\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-26 20:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzNTE3NDMwNw==&mid=2247559395&idx=2&sn=894d264460490e441c6bf8e0a9b6f1f0&chksm=fa8a252fcdfdac39f028e3a67340fd57f2f3dc2c2cd13353a2d9b3306be3327034150b6fd255&scene=126&&sessionid=1645850420><strong>中信证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看，地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下，我们认为 1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzNTE3NDMwNw==&mid=2247559395&idx=2&sn=894d264460490e441c6bf8e0a9b6f1f0&chksm=fa8a252fcdfdac39f028e3a67340fd57f2f3dc2c2cd13353a2d9b3306be3327034150b6fd255&scene=126&&sessionid=1645850420\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"RSX","symbol_name":"俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzNTE3NDMwNw==&mid=2247559395&idx=2&sn=894d264460490e441c6bf8e0a9b6f1f0&chksm=fa8a252fcdfdac39f028e3a67340fd57f2f3dc2c2cd13353a2d9b3306be3327034150b6fd255&scene=126&&sessionid=1645850420","article_id":"1142065755","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/388c64683f823c97b25a4d2468897ece"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142065755","pubTimestamp":1645878880,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"zxzqyj","name":"中信证券研究"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"RSX":"俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities: There are three situations in the evolution trend of \"Russia-Ukraine conflict\"","themeId":"5b2bdf9043654357acb1f1cc4d54c3f3","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196143f71cab49d55f02b45540669d38","symbols_score_info":{"RSX":0.9},"content_text":"作者：崔嵘长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。从历史来看，地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。在中性情况下，我们认为 1）本次俄乌冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。2）俄罗斯股指、卢布以及欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，美股美债或将小幅震荡。3）油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长可能约3-4周，布油价格或继续上冲逼近105-110美元/桶，预计上半年持续维持90美元/桶左右，下半年供需逆转后逐渐回落。4）金价预计未来或将延续目前高位震荡走势，年底回落至1600-1700美元/盎司。长期的地缘纠葛是俄乌问题的主要历史原因，而大国角力则是俄乌问题的直接现实原因。在有待商榷的统治政策及西方国家影响下，乌克兰逐渐形成了当下“东乌克兰亲俄罗斯，西乌克兰亲西方”的撕裂局面。历史上，俄罗斯民族曾实际控制克里米亚地区近三百年。1954年赫鲁晓夫将克里米亚地区划归乌克兰，为后世埋下隐患。苏联解体后，乌克兰成为俄罗斯势力与西方势力的交汇点以及主要博弈区域。在大国角力的大背景下，乌克兰政治一极化倾向愈发明显，经济下行时期矛盾往往激化。本次乌克兰危机是14年克里米亚危机后的延续，直接原因是乌克兰在美北支持下对俄态度渐鹰，加入北约的趋势渐起。俄乌冲突可能存在的几种演变趋势预判：1）乐观情况：拐点已至，紧张气氛即将结束，但鉴于当前俄罗斯出兵形势，该情况出现的可能性较小。2）中性情况：乌东地区爆发一定规模的正面代理人冲突，整个事件持续数周，该情况出现的可能性较大。3）悲观情况：冲突升级为区域性战争，整个事件延续数月以上，但鉴于本次事件“天花板”已明、西方对俄资源的依赖等原因，该情况出现的可能性极小。地缘政治危机对主要资产走势长期影响有限。从历史上看，地缘政治危机对国际资本市场的影响主要有“波动情绪化、反映时效快、持续时长短、后续影响小”的特点。影响主要体现在资产价格冲击呈现“V”字型走势，形状普遍较陡，深度取决于地缘政治影响强弱。根据跌幅测算，我们认为，各大类资产价格受本次地缘政治危机的冲击程度依次是：俄罗斯股市 > 卢布 > 大宗商品 > 欧洲股指 > 美股。▍根据以上不同演变情况，我们分析了“俄乌冲突”对经济和资产价格的潜在影响，总体而言，我们倾向于中性情况，即对资产价格冲击最大的阶段或已过去。具体而言，中性情况下，本次冲突对俄罗斯、欧洲经济或产生一定影响，但对美国通胀影响弱于欧洲国家，预计美联储仍会在3月议息会议上加息25bp。俄罗斯股指及卢布或将经历U型冲击，后续修复过程较漫长，欧洲主要股指或将经历U型冲击，但幅度小于俄指，美股美债或将小幅震荡。油价或呈倒U型走势，顶部持续时长可能约3-4周，布油价格或继续上冲逼近105-110美元/桶，上半年持续维持90美元/桶左右，下半年供需逆转后逐渐回落；金价预计未来或将延续目前高位震荡走势，年底回落至1600-1700美元/盎司；国际铝价后续涨幅可能在10%左右；农产品方面，小麦价格或将上行明显，至二三季度恐持续高位震荡，市场担忧情绪恐短时内难以完全消散。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9039814011,"gmtCreate":1646004100681,"gmtModify":1676534080187,"author":{"id":"3564108727353086","authorId":"3564108727353086","name":"Futre","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/912eae14e80f11fedbc3bdb7e10bb6d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3564108727353086","idStr":"3564108727353086"},"htmlText":"贊👍","listText":"贊👍","text":"贊👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039814011","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039398323,"gmtCreate":1645920104685,"gmtModify":1676534074066,"author":{"id":"4090651426001740","authorId":"4090651426001740","name":"HKpoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e76b0a89262ef58fedef12ced230ca","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4090651426001740","idStr":"4090651426001740"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷] [財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039398323","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9039393302,"gmtCreate":1645919766423,"gmtModify":1676534074016,"author":{"id":"3581581906530118","authorId":"3581581906530118","name":"winwin_Tan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581581906530118","idStr":"3581581906530118"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039393302","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9039969441,"gmtCreate":1645885879385,"gmtModify":1676534072536,"author":{"id":"3573467106982618","authorId":"3573467106982618","name":"xxbbew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39068f2ebe66e4e0b64c90ad557577c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573467106982618","idStr":"3573467106982618"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039969441","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9039911885,"gmtCreate":1645880284513,"gmtModify":1676534072097,"author":{"id":"3568697814695599","authorId":"3568697814695599","name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3568697814695599","idStr":"3568697814695599"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039911885","repostId":1142065755,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":179,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1142065755"}