ZFX Shanhai Securities: Christmas Rally Effect Returns, BTC May Rebound Riding on Stock and Gold Momentum

Traditional Opportunities in Year-End Markets On December 23, despite Bitcoin facing its toughest challenge since 2022 in Q4 2025, ZFX Shanhai Securities suggests that Wall Street's historic "Santa Claus Rally" effect may serve as the last hope for bullish investors. Seasonal trends in traditional financial markets often transmit sentiment, injecting much-needed liquidity and confidence into digital asset markets.

Seasonal Patterns in Stock-Bond Correlations Long-term data shows the S&P 500 has a high probability of rising during the last five trading days of the year and the start of the new year. Since 2005, the index has posted gains in this period 75% of the time, with an average return of 0.58%. ZFX Shanhai Securities notes that given the index's underperformance in the past two Christmas cycles, historical statistics suggest a higher likelihood of mean reversion and a rebound this year.

With institutional capital increasingly involved via ETFs, the correlation between digital assets and traditional equities continues to strengthen. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that if holiday buying in U.S. stocks materializes as expected, bullish sentiment is highly likely to spill over into the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin's Christmas performance has varied since 2011 (e.g., a 46% surge in 2016 but a 10% drop in 2021), its average 7.9% gain during this period highlights its potential upside.

Gold's Record High and Ripple Effects Among various asset classes, ZFX Shanhai Securities highlights gold as a benchmark for hedging and inflation resistance, showing particularly stable performance around year-end. Since 2005, gold has delivered impressive cumulative returns during the Christmas season, with prices currently peaking at $4,400 per ounce.

In summary, with gold at historic highs and the S&P 500 nearing record levels, Bitcoin—still trading at a roughly 30% discount from its peak—appears poised for a catch-up rally. ZFX Shanhai Securities suggests investors should pay attention to the synergistic effects of asset allocation during the year-end transition, especially as traditional financial assets strengthen.