The first half of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period has passed, bringing new opportunities for China's economic development. A series of programs starting from August 3 explores how new growth drivers are strengthening the nation's economic base by delving into industrial frontlines.
This year, China's manufacturing exports have seen an influx of new products. Two years ago, electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells were hailed as the "new three exports." Now, in the first half of 2024, robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and innovative drugs are emerging as the "new-new three exports," representing future industrial directions and becoming fresh hallmarks of China's foreign trade.
Compared to the "old three" and "new three" categories, what makes the "new-new three" truly novel? Reports from industrial frontlines reveal that despite a complex international landscape, China's foreign trade exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, with import and export volumes surpassing 25 trillion yuan for the first time in history, securing its position as the world's largest goods trader.
Where to start
The trajectory of China's foreign trade, from the "old three" (apparel, furniture, home appliances) to the "new three" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, solar cells), and now to the "new-new three" (robotics, AI, innovative drugs), represents more than just a shift in product categories. It reflects a systematic leap in independent innovation capabilities.
Chen Yutao, deputy director of the Standard Committee of the China Enterprise Confederation, explains: "The transition from the 'old three' to the 'new three' signifies a move from production cost advantages to advanced manufacturing capabilities. The shift from the 'new three' to the 'new-new three' demonstrates a concentrated expression of overall innovation ecosystem capabilities."
This year, the AI industry has accelerated rapidly. China is not only exporting algorithms, computing power, and digital solutions globally but also seeing rapid growth in AI hardware exports. Under the global AI wave, massive amounts of data "run" around the clock between data centers, supported by optical communication networks composed of core components like fiber optics, optical modules, and optical elements.
At a fiber optic company in Wuhan's Optics Valley, production lines are operating at full capacity. Wen Xiaojiang, general manager of the international company at Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, notes: "Specialized fiber optics for AI data centers are in high demand due to the explosion of data centers, making this product supply tight."
Facing the surge in global computing power demand, companies like this one can steadily handle orders thanks to years of technical reserves. The first practical optical fiber in China was born in Wuhan in the 1970s, and over half a century, Optics Valley has built a cluster covering materials, devices, and equipment. Today, over 800 AI companies are based here, with the optoelectronic information industry's annual output value exceeding 660 billion yuan.
These small components require extremely high precision, often controlled at the micron level, demanding long-term process experience and continuous R&D investment. Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company has developed a series of "AI computing fiber" products tailored for AI scenarios. This breakthrough places China at the forefront of next-generation fiber optic technology, offering new technical options for global computing infrastructure.
Zheng Xin, vice president of Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, explains: "When developing this fiber, we didn't necessarily anticipate AI's use a decade later. We pursued it because the concept was advanced, and we felt it was important to reserve this technology. It might see massive use in some context in the near future. Indeed, with the AI wave, this fiber is ready for those prepared."
Chen Yutao adds: "Over the years, we've laid a solid foundation through national science and technology projects and major industrial layouts. When the AI explosion arrived, this solid industrial base provided an opportunity for this new round of industrial growth and the development of new productive forces."
The rise of the "new-new three" is inseparable from China's strong support from high-end manufacturing and industrial clusters. Chinese robotics companies are becoming global leaders in the intelligence wave, leveraging a complete industrial ecosystem and scene-implementation capabilities.
At a robotics company in Beijing's Zhongguancun, the overseas business manager is in a video call with a Thai agent. Responding to various scenario needs, the company adjusts technical solutions in real time to customize the most suitable products locally. Founded in 2014, this robotics company now serves over 40,000 hotels globally, more than 200 medical institutions, and numerous factories, buildings, and retail scenarios, exporting to over 20 countries and regions.
Using a split architecture that flexibly combines a universal robot chassis with various functional modules, users can give voice or text commands via an AI agent on their phones to dispatch robots for multiple service tasks. Within the company, robots are not just R&D products but also daily life "companions" for employees. They navigate floors and workstations, responding to various needs to refine their practical service capabilities.
In the first half of this year, China exported 12.947 million units of various robots, valued at 24.85 billion yuan, to over 160 countries and regions. Leveraging the world's richest application scenarios and complete industrial chain advantages, more Chinese companies are providing smarter, more cost-effective robots to global customers.
Why just three key sectors?
If AI and robotics exports represent products and systemic service capabilities, then innovative drugs in the "new-new three" focus more on exporting patents and basic R&D capabilities. In the first half of this year, 31 domestic innovative drugs were approved for market in China, two of which were developed at the pharmaceutical port in Hangzhou's Qiantang New District.
This area, spanning only about 6 square kilometers, has gathered over 300 innovative drug companies over the past decade. Beyond approved drugs, many are in clinical trials. Some companies already generate overseas revenue through drug patent licensing before market sales. Qian Lili, chairman of Tianjing Biotech, says: "A decade ago, these products had to be launched abroad first, then introduced to China for re-development. Now, our independently developed products grant rights to overseas companies. One of our products, a CD38 monoclonal antibody, completed Phase III trials in China this year. We completed a BD deal with U.S. Biogen for $850 million, with a $100 million upfront payment."
BD refers to business collaborations in innovative drugs. Domestic companies develop new drugs, then partner globally through out-licensing or joint development to advance R&D, marketing, and sales, bringing innovations to wider international markets. In the first half of this year, total out-licensing transaction value for innovative drugs exceeded $100 billion, hitting a new record, covering 10 therapeutic areas including oncology, metabolism, immunity, and neurology, ranking China second globally in industrial scale.
In fermentation tanks, cells grow, divide, and reproduce in culture media, secreting antibodies needed for drug production. Cell culture media, containing dozens of substances, is a core raw material for biopharmaceuticals. Previously, annual costs for this alone were hundreds of millions of dollars; now, domestically developed media costs only a quarter of that. Continuous improvements in raw material costs, process optimization, and basic research and talent cultivation are accelerating the success and export of innovative drugs.
The acceleration of R&D and review and approval speeds allow domestic innovative drugs to hit the market faster, benefiting Chinese patients earlier and enriching doctors' "weapons arsenals" like never before. Shen Lin, director of the Department of Gastrointestinal Oncology at Peking University Cancer Hospital, says: "We feel more confident now. Our new drug development speed has clearly increased. These companies focus more on Chinese population needs. We now prioritize meeting domestic demands before going global. With products, clinical needs, and national policy support, multiple forces combine to advance innovative drug development."
Liu Guoen, dean of the Global Health Research Institute at Peking University, adds: "The explosive growth of China's innovative drugs is a natural product of decades of accumulation. Overseas markets are a necessary path for innovative enterprises. I expect that for the foreseeable future, going global or internationalization will be the biggest highlight of our innovation journey."
During the research process, many shared their "unexpected" findings: fiber optic companies didn't foresee the AI-driven demand surge, robotics companies didn't expect so many customized global requests, and innovative drug practitioners didn't anticipate that established overseas pharmaceutical companies would actively seek R&D collaboration within a decade. One key takeaway is that the "new-new three" isn't just about adding new export products; it reflects a new systemic capability cultivated through decades of exploration. This change is not a minor tweak to the export list but a quality upgrade in China's industrial logic for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
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