Recent short-term gold price action has come under pressure, with international spot gold (XAU/USD) falling nearly 2.5% over three trading sessions, as selling pressure intensifies once again and the metal struggles to stabilize and rebound.
The latest bout of weakness was primarily driven by US employment data beating expectations, which led markets to raise their expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. US Treasury yields have rebounded, continuously weighing on gold prices, and the nonfarm payrolls report due this Friday will further shape the market's direction.
Job Openings Data Exceeds Expectations, Rate Hike Expectations Rise Sharply
The latest US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report served as the trigger for this market move. The market had previously expected job openings of 7.15 million, but the final reading came in at 7.52 million, significantly above expectations. This data broke the trend of gradual cooling in the labor market seen before September, reflecting that corporate hiring demand remains firm, with the scale of job openings exceeding levels seen for most of 2026.
The labor market is one of the core reference indicators for the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy. Strong employment resilience means that even if inflation remains elevated, the Fed Chair has room to maintain a relatively hawkish policy stance. Before the data was released, the market was pricing in about a 74% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December 9 policy meeting. After the data came out, that probability climbed to 80%, and the market began pricing in a more aggressive Fed policy path than previously anticipated.
The shift in expectations directly pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield returning to an upward trajectory and once again approaching the 5.00% threshold. Gold is a non-yielding asset, and in an environment of rising bond yields, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, with capital tending to flow toward bonds. This has been the core logic constraining gold prices since the start of 2026, and this dynamic is unlikely to reverse quickly in the near term.
The market is also awaiting the nonfarm payrolls report, which will have a stronger impact on Fed policy expectations. Before the data is released, selling pressure on gold prices is likely to persist.
Technical Picture Remains Firmly Bearish, Multiple Indicators Signal Downside
From a technical perspective, the larger-degree bearish trend in gold continues to dominate. Gold prices have repeatedly hit multi-month lows recently, further confirming the validity of the downtrend line formed since early 2026, which is the most noteworthy technical structure on the current chart. If bears continue to break through key support, a more aggressive short-term decline could unfold in the coming weeks.
Oscillators also confirm bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to run below the 50 neutral line, indicating that bearish momentum has dominated over the past 14 trading sessions. The TRIX indicator also remains below the zero line, representing a sustained downtrend structure in the exponential moving average combination, further confirming that sellers are in control of the current market. Until the indicators show a clear reversal, the bearish tone of the market is unlikely to change.
Key Price Levels Reviewed, Bull-Bear Divide Remains Clear
The first major resistance level above is set at $4,200, which coincides with the 50-period simple moving average and the Ichimoku cloud zone, making it an important upside barrier. Only if gold prices recover and hold above this level would there be a chance to challenge the current dominant bearish structure and open up room for a sustained corrective rebound.
The $4,000 level is the secondary resistance for a short-term rebound and is also a highly watched psychological threshold. If gold prices see a short-term pullback and recovery, this level will become a core observation point.
The most important support below is $3,885, which is the low since October 2025 and the most critical defensive threshold at present. Once gold prices continue to trade below this level, the bears' advantage will be further amplified, and downside room will open up.
Conclusion
Gold is currently under dual pressure from tightening expectations and bearish technicals. Employment data continues to reinforce Fed rate hike expectations, and rising Treasury yields continue to divert capital away from gold. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls data will be the decisive variable for short-term direction, and investors need to closely monitor the break of the $3,885 support and the $4,200 resistance.
Spot gold daily chart. Source: Yihuitong. As of 14:28 Beijing time on November 4, spot gold was quoted at $4,014.80 per ounce.
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