Gold's Weak Consolidation and the Week's Opening Analysis

On June 22nd, regarding gold, the market experienced a rise and subsequent fall last week. Influenced by the interest rate decision, the price action has returned to a pattern of weak consolidation. The weekly chart closed with a long upper-shadow bearish candle, yet the momentum for continued decline has clearly weakened, indicating the market is no longer in a unilateral downtrend. Simultaneously, the weekly chart did not establish a new low, suggesting a potential reversal expectation after finding a bottom. Caution is warranted for an oversold rebound following a secondary test that fails to break below previous lows. Therefore, this week is viewed as a period of broad-range back-and-forth consolidation. The upper resistance lies in the 4260-70 area, while initial support below is around 4121, followed by the 4070-24 region. Until the key range is effectively broken, the strategy should initially focus on selling high and buying low.

Looking at the daily chart, after briefly holding above the moving averages in the first half of the week, the price lost that level again. The daily chart formed three consecutive bearish candles, with the market returning to weak consolidation. However, with the price approaching the 4000 mark, there is no need to chase further downside. At the start of the week, focus first on the 4121 level. If broken, attention should shift to the 4100-4070 area, where buying can be considered near the lows. Above, initial resistance is around 4180, followed by the daily chart resistance near 4212. Additionally, moving average resistance is in the 4220-30 area; these are levels where selling can be considered upon approach.

For trading operations, it is suggested: Monday carries significant uncertainty. In the early Asian session, monitor the situation at 4121. If it holds, consider buying during the European/American session based on that support. A more conservative approach would be to wait for the price to stabilize above 4212 before buying. Specific entries will be provided during the market session.