Abstract
StoneCo will report second-quarter 2026 results Post-Mkt on August 13, 2026, and this preview distills current revenue, margin, and EPS expectations, key segment dynamics, and how recent institutional views frame the setup into the print.
Market Forecast
For the quarter to be reported, the current setup implies total revenue of 3.66 billion Brazilian reais, down 2.79% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 2.41 Brazilian reais, up 19.75% year over year; margin guidance for the period is not specified in management’s prior disclosures, though consensus leans to stable-to-better profitability given mix and cost discipline. The company’s financial income stream remained the principal revenue driver last quarter at 2.58 billion Brazilian reais, while transaction activities and other services delivered 481.42 million Brazilian reais and subscription services and equipment rentals added 251.82 million Brazilian reais; the medium-term opportunity is centered on scaling transaction-linked services alongside recurring subscription economics, with near-term mix likely to stay anchored by financial income.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, StoneCo reported revenue of 3.58 billion Brazilian reais with a gross profit margin of 70.17%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.71 billion Brazilian reais, a net profit margin of 51.47%, and adjusted EPS of 2.19 Brazilian reais, up 11.17% year over year. Notably, net profit jumped 241.33% quarter over quarter, underscoring a sharp swing in bottom-line momentum into the new fiscal period. By business line, total revenue slipped 2.50% year over year to 3.58 billion Brazilian reais, with financial income contributing 2.58 billion Brazilian reais, transaction activities and other services at 481.42 million Brazilian reais, other financial income at 262.54 million Brazilian reais, and subscription services and equipment rentals at 251.82 million Brazilian reais, collectively showing a revenue mix still dominated by financial income.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Financial income and yield management
The financial income franchise remains the centerpiece of StoneCo’s P&L, representing roughly seventy-two percent of last quarter’s revenue at 2.58 billion Brazilian reais. For the second quarter, consensus revenue expects a modest year-over-year decline in total sales, while earnings per share continue to grow, a profile that aligns with a mix where yield and funding-cost management carry a disproportionate influence on results. The bridge from revenue softness to EPS resilience likely rests on maintaining attractive spreads on client balances and prepayment activities, as well as disciplined operating expenses. The company’s recent quarter demonstrated a strong net profit margin at 51.47%, which sets a high base; holding that level requires steady take-rate realization and tight control of funding and processing costs into the quarter. While EBIT is modeled to decline 41.94% year over year to 1.09 billion Brazilian reais in the consensus framework, the EPS estimate of 2.41 Brazilian reais implies the bottom line remains supported by below-the-line items and mix effects that mitigate EBIT compression. In practical terms, investors will look for signs that the quarter’s EPS progression can remain decoupled from softer revenue, validating that spread management and cost control are sufficient to protect net profitability. Management commentary around the sustainability of the prior quarter’s net-profit inflection will be closely parsed, especially given the magnitude of the 241.33% quarter-over-quarter rebound in GAAP net income that set up the current run-rate.
Most promising business: Transaction activities and subscription-driven services
The transaction activities and other services line came in at 481.42 million Brazilian reais last quarter, reflecting the depth of the company’s commercial relationships and the monetization of payment flows. This area can expand with volume growth and incremental service adoption per client, creating operating leverage as fixed platform costs are amortized across a higher base of services. Even if total-company revenue is forecast to decline by 2.79% year over year in the second quarter, the unit-level opportunity within transaction-linked services remains attractive if attach rates and pricing hold through the period. A related engine is subscription services and equipment rentals, which delivered 251.82 million Brazilian reais last quarter and provide visible, recurring revenue that helps stabilize the P&L across cycles. The interaction between these two revenue pools offers a medium-term pathway to diversify away from the heavier reliance on financial income, gradually improving revenue quality while supporting margin durability. In the quarter, investors will focus on whether transaction yields and service bundles show signs of expansion per merchant, which would be an early indicator that cross-sell and platform utilization are progressing in line with expectations. Any update on new commercial tools, onboarding efficiency, or improved conversion across the installed base could reinforce the view that the services trajectory is underappreciated in consensus models for the next few quarters. Commentary on churn and net adds can also shape conviction in the sustainability of subscription and service revenue momentum, even as headline revenue growth prints modestly negative on a year-over-year basis.
What will move the stock: EPS-resilience vs. revenue softness and margin signals
The headline tension into the print is the contrast between a revenue forecast that is slightly down year over year at 3.66 billion Brazilian reais and an EPS forecast that is up nearly twenty percent to 2.41 Brazilian reais. If StoneCo delivers on the EPS resilience while demonstrating clean underlying quality in net profit, the market is likely to reward signs of efficient capital allocation and operating discipline. Conversely, the modeled 41.94% year-over-year decline in EBIT places emphasis on the income statement bridge, and any clarity on drivers below EBIT—such as financial income dynamics or updated line-item efficiencies—will matter for the stock’s reaction. Margin commentary will be a key read-through: the last quarter’s 70.17% gross margin and 51.47% net margin set a robust baseline, and investors will look for qualitative guidance that these levels can be broadly maintained given the current revenue mix. The quarter’s message around mix—how financial income compares to transaction activities and subscriptions—and the trajectory of funding costs and take rates will likely be as important as the absolute revenue number to how the stock reprices. Guidance color on the second half of the year and any cadence for operating expense growth could also recalibrate expectations, especially if the company frames a path for EBIT stabilization relative to consensus. Finally, the magnitude of any variance versus the revenue estimate and the composition of that variance—whether driven by financial income or fee-based services—may shape the near-term narrative and volatility around the shares.
Analyst Opinions
Across the last six months, the balance of institutional commentary skews bullish, with Buy or Overweight stances outnumbering Hold and Neutral views. Bank of America Securities, represented by analyst Mario Pierry, maintained a Buy rating with a 25.00 US dollars price target, highlighting the company’s earnings power and the runway for monetization across its client base. UBS also maintained a Buy stance while adjusting its price target to 15.00 US dollars from 17.00 US dollars, a move that emphasizes prudence on valuation headroom without changing the constructive view on the business trajectory. Taken together, these endorsements suggest that institutions with positive views are focusing on the durability of earnings despite a forecast for modest revenue contraction this quarter, as well as the improving mix contributions from services and subscriptions. The bullish camp expects the combination of take-rate management, funding-cost discipline, and operating efficiency to bridge the gap between softer top-line prints and healthier per-share profitability, lending credibility to the 19.75% year-over-year advance implied in the EPS estimate of 2.41 Brazilian reais. Supportive commentary also reflects confidence that the company’s segment composition—anchored by financial income and increasingly complemented by transaction activities and recurring subscriptions—can sustain above-average margin characteristics even as the cycle introduces variability into headline revenue. On the balance of evidence, the bullish majority expects StoneCo to reiterate a message of cost control and quality of earnings, which, if delivered alongside stable-to-firm margin signals, could strengthen the longer-term narrative despite near-term revenue headwinds.
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