Major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen showed a split performance today. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index gained over 1.4%. Trading volume for the two markets continued to shrink from the previous session, reaching 2.34 trillion yuan.
The conflict between the US and Iran remains a significant variable impacting global capital markets. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz acts as an amplifier for geopolitical risks disrupting the oil supply chain, increasing risk premiums for crude oil and shipping. This is driving a macro repricing chain characterized by supply-side shocks, resurgent inflation, and passively tightening financial conditions. The potential duration of this conflict remains highly uncertain.
For the domestic equity market, short-term risk appetite is suppressed, and volatility has increased. Pricing dominance has strengthened for upstream energy and oil shipping sectors. Downstream segments reliant on crude oil costs, such as chemicals and transportation, face two-way pressure on profit flexibility. Caution is advised regarding market fluctuations in the near term. A balanced allocation is recommended, with appropriate attention to the defensive qualities of dividend-paying assets.
On the economic data front, figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 showed that from January to February, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, industrial output in February rose 0.83% compared to January. Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February reached 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. National fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first two months was 5.2721 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year. By sector, infrastructure investment grew by 11.4%, manufacturing investment increased by 3.1%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.1%.
In summary, major economic indicators for January-February showed significant improvement, indicating a good start for the national economy. However, the deepening impact of a changing external environment and rising geopolitical risks, alongside persistent old problems and new challenges in domestic economic development and transformation, mean some businesses still face difficulties. More proactive and forceful macro policies are expected in the next stage, tailored to local conditions to develop new productive forces and promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy.
Regarding the property market, data showed that in February, the month-on-month decline in sales prices for new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to narrow, while year-on-year prices fell. The number of cities seeing month-on-month increases or stability in new home prices increased compared to the previous month. In first-tier cities, new home prices were flat month-on-month, shifting from a 0.3% decline in January; year-on-year, they fell 2.2%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points. Prices for pre-owned homes dipped 0.1% month-on-month, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points; year-on-year, they fell 7.6%, matching the previous month's decline.
The February housing price data releases positive signals of marginal improvement in the real estate market, suggesting that sustained policy support is leading to a gradual shift towards market stabilization. The improved month-on-month price signals help alleviate valuation pressures on the real estate chain (including development, building materials, home furnishings, and appliances). However, the expanding year-on-year declines indicate that the foundation for recovery still needs consolidation. The strength of the "small sunny spell" in core cities and the pace of subsequent demand-side policies warrant attention.
Financial statistics for February showed that the outstanding total social financing (TSF) stood at 451.4 trillion yuan at the end of the month, up 8.2% year-on-year. The broad money supply (M2) balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, a rise of 9% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 115.93 trillion yuan, increasing 5.9% year-on-year. In the first two months, the cumulative increment in TSF was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. New yuan loans reached 5.61 trillion yuan.
The February financial data indicates that under a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance, financial aggregates maintained rapid growth, providing stable support for the real economy. In terms of volume, the 9% M2 growth and TSF exceeding 450 trillion yuan reflect an overall ample liquidity environment. Structurally, the strong performance in new medium- and long-term corporate loans highlights the tilt of financial resources towards the real economy, such as manufacturing and infrastructure. The decrease in household loans was mainly influenced by seasonal factors; with the implementation of policies like consumer loan interest subsidies, household loans are expected to recover.
In market trading, the three major A-share indices closed mixed. The Shanghai Composite Index finished at 4084.79 points, down 0.26%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14307.58 points, up 0.19%. The ChiNext Index ended at 3357.02 points, rising 1.41%. The STAR 100 Index closed at 1566.81 points, gaining 1.31%. Among Shenwan's primary industries, Food & Beverage, Electronics, and Commercial Trade & Retail led the gains, rising 1.99%, 1.77%, and 0.99% respectively. Steel, Nonferrous Metals, and Basic Chemicals were among the top decliners, falling 3.16%, 2.67%, and 2.15% respectively. A total of 2771 stocks advanced, while 2338 declined.
Market turnover was 2340.112 billion yuan, down from the previous trading session. The balance of margin lending and short selling closed at 2651.711 billion yuan last Friday, also down from the prior day.
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