Good morning, here are the latest updates.
Netanyahu Says Israeli Troops Will Remain in Southern Lebanon 'Security Zone'
According to reports, on the 25th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech reiterating his refusal to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon and stating he would continue all actions to "prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons."
Speaking on the Lebanon-Israel situation, Netanyahu emphasized that the Israeli military currently controls areas in southern Lebanon and will continue to be stationed within the so-called "security zone." He explicitly stated that the troops will not withdraw, saying, "As long as there is a security need to protect northern Israel and the citizens of the entire country, the Israeli military will remain there."
On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that Israeli forces would be stationed indefinitely within the unilaterally declared so-called "security zones" in southern Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip, and reiterated there would be no withdrawal. Gallant also issued a warning to Iran, claiming that if Iran attacks Israel due to Israeli military actions in Lebanon or for any other reason, Israel would use its "full force" to retaliate against Iranian territory.
Informed Sources: Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon is Key Iranian 'Red Line'
According to reports, on June 25th, a source close to the negotiation team stated that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese territory is one of the conditions for a final agreement between Iran and the United States and is viewed by the Iranian negotiating team as an important "red line."
The source further indicated that the final memorandum of understanding would safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. A previously agreed text from Switzerland had already emphasized a "conflict resolution mechanism" involving Iran and implemented uniformly. The Iranian side is currently following up on the specific timeline for its execution.
The source also noted that over the past six days, the scale of Israeli attacks on Lebanon had significantly decreased, suggesting that Iran's measures were having an effect. However, Iran would not be satisfied unless a permanent ceasefire is achieved and Israel completely withdraws from Lebanon.
A Cargo Ship Attacked in Waters Near Oman
According to reports, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) issued a notice on the 25th stating that a cargo ship was attacked in waters near Oman that day, sustaining damage to its bridge, with no casualties reported.
The notice said a cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile approximately 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman's Al Duqm. The impact was on the starboard side, damaging the bridge. The incident caused no casualties and no impact on the marine environment.
The International Maritime Organization and Oman recently launched a new safe passage mechanism to assist stranded ships and seafarers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. On the 25th, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated on social media that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must coordinate with the IRGC Navy, and vessels violating this "will be dealt with."
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Recovers to Nearly 60% of Pre-Conflict Levels
According to reports, S&P Global Commodity Insights released a report on the 25th stating that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, setting a new single-day record since the outbreak of the Iran conflict. The average daily vessel traffic through the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels.
The report said that as of the 24th, a total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz this month, making it likely the busiest month for traffic since the conflict began.
The report pointed out that recent vessels leaving the Strait included not only those stranded long-term due to the conflict but also those that had recently entered, reflecting initial signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the recovery in traffic can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements need further consolidation and implementation.
Analysis suggests the traffic recovery is closely related to the recent announcement by Oman and the IMO of the activation of a southern route in the Strait of Hormuz. On the 24th, 33 vessels used this new route.
However, according to British sources on the 25th, Iran stated that day that vessel traffic must use the northern route of the Strait of Hormuz approved by Iran. This complicates passage through the Strait.
The UK-based maritime analytics company Windward stated on the 25th that four oil tankers turned back while transiting the Strait via the southern route that day. At the time, Iran's IRGC broadcast a message over radio channels, requiring ships to "proceed only along designated routes with IRGC permission" and warning that unauthorized passage or deviation from designated routes "will bear consequences."
The IMO announced on the 23rd the initiation of a plan to evacuate stranded seafarers in the Strait of Hormuz region, recommending routes as the northern route on the Iranian side and the southern route on the Omani side.
Latest Remarks from Federal Reserve Officials
In the early hours of June 26th, New York Fed President John Williams, the Fed's third-in-command, stated that the current monetary policy stance is effectively restraining inflation, but multiple risks remain, and interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the near term.
He believes the current level of inflation is "undoubtedly still high," but the current interest rate stance is fully equipped to guide inflation back to the 2% long-term target. He expects inflation to fall to 3.5% by the end of this year, then continue to decline along a "glide path," reaching the 2% target by 2028.
Cryptocurrencies Plunge Across the Board
On June 25th, cryptocurrencies fell sharply across the board. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 1.78%, falling below the 60,000 point level to 59,857 points.
According to data from CoinGlass, over the past 24 hours, more than 130,000 traders globally were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $891 million. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Hyperliquid-BTC-USD, valued at $38.0525 million.
Overnight Market Performance
The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq down 0.46%, the S&P 500 essentially flat, down 0.01%, and the Dow Jones up 0.14%. Tech stocks showed divergent movements. Chip stocks rose, with SanDisk up over 21%, Micron Technology up over 15% for its best single-day performance since May 26th, Applied Materials up over 13%, Western Digital and ASML up over 4%, and Qualcomm up over 3%. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants declined, with Apple down 6.1%, marking its largest single-day drop since April 2025.
International precious metals futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $4,041.60 per ounce; COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $57.89 per ounce.
International oil prices closed higher collectively. The main U.S. crude oil contract rose 1.61% to $71.47 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 1.56% to $75.02 per barrel.
Geopolitical Premium Significantly Eroded, Is There More Downside for Oil Prices?
Recently, the crude oil market's decline has continued, with prices falling to their lowest levels in four months. This round of declines has nearly erased all the premium triggered by the previous U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
The rapid easing of supply concerns following the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is the core driver behind this oil price decline. Fiona Cincotta, Senior Analyst at City Index, believes the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has increased recently, though it remains below pre-conflict levels. Estimates suggest current daily oil transit through the Strait is 6-7 million barrels, compared to 20 million barrels before the conflict erupted.
Shipping data shows that between June 22nd and 25th, a total of 23 oil tankers departed from the Strait of Hormuz, carrying a total of 33.87 million barrels of crude oil, all destined for Asia. The market expects that, against the backdrop of a U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of Strait traffic, oil exports from the Persian Gulf region could quickly rebound to over 10 million barrels per day by the end of July; oilfield production is expected to reach around 15 million barrels per day before October and potentially recover to pre-conflict levels by year-end.
Furthermore, considering current low global oil inventories, Cincotta stated that as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are currently using other pipeline routes more, as long as oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz recovers to around 14 million barrels per day, oil exports from the Gulf region could return to pre-conflict levels.
Customs data shows China's crude oil imports in May fell 14% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year; cumulative imports from January to May fell 4.8% year-on-year. With Middle East crude oil transportation channels fully restored, some refineries that had reduced output due to transportation pressures are expected to quickly ramp up operations. Initial estimates suggest processing loads at major refineries will gradually recover in July, though recovery space for independent refineries' operating rates may be limited in the short term.
Following a significant drop in short-term market sentiment, the geopolitical premium has been substantially eroded, but oil prices are still in a process of finding a bottom. Cincotta stated that investors will continue to monitor the pace at which Middle Eastern oil producers increase production and restore oil exports. If supply recovers faster than demand growth, oil prices could remain under pressure even if geopolitical tensions persist. As subsequent U.S.-Iran negotiations progress step by step, the overall geopolitical sentiment has cooled. However, after the continuous release of negative factors, the room for further declines in oil prices is expected to be limited.
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