Overall, COMEX gold is trading within a narrow range, showing relative stability as of the time of writing, with market sentiment turning cautious.
On the geopolitical front, tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked. Since the ceasefire agreement expired on April 22, prospects for further negotiations have not improved. While the U.S. has expressed intentions to push for a second round of talks, it continues to signal military threats. Iran, on the other hand, has refused to engage in new discussions and has further tightened control over transit through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Israel has indicated that its military actions against Iran are "not yet over." Overall, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, but the market's marginal reaction to geopolitical risks has somewhat dulled.
On the policy front, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its April meeting this week, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. According to CME FedWatch data, expectations for rate cuts within the year have further narrowed to less than one. Beyond the decision itself, the market is paying closer attention to the post-meeting statement's language on inflation and the policy path, which will provide guidance for gold's short-term direction.
In summary, gold prices face dual pressures from geopolitical stalemate and expectations of policy tightening ahead of the holiday, limiting short-term upside potential. However, geopolitical tensions and potential stagflation risks continue to support gold's medium- to long-term value as an asset. With China's Labor Day holiday approaching, investors are advised to manage their positions cautiously, keeping exposure light until market direction becomes clearer after the break.
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