On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline yesterday following the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy decision. The weakness has continued today, with the price remaining below key short-term moving averages such as the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day lines. The moving average system is arranged in a bearish pattern, presenting clear resistance, and the medium-term downtrend remains unchanged.
On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading in a narrow range between $4150 and $4200. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to trend downward, and the price is under pressure near this level. The RSI indicator has slightly recovered from oversold territory, moving into the 35-40 range, indicating some short-term momentum for a technical rebound from oversold conditions. However, it has not yet broken above the 50 level, a key bull-bear dividing line, suggesting a lack of strong bullish conviction. The MACD indicator shows a shortening of the green histogram, and the DIF line shows signs of crossing above the DEA line to form a potential golden cross, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum. Nonetheless, the rebound strength is limited, and the overall market remains in a weak, oscillating phase as it searches for a bottom.
On the 1-hour chart, the price has shown minor fluctuations throughout the day. It has repeatedly tested the resistance zone between $4190 and $4195 but has failed to achieve a decisive breakout. Meanwhile, the support zone between $4180 and $4183 has been tested multiple times. This indicates intense short-term battle between bulls and bears, with a lack of clear directional bias, presenting a consolidating pattern.
In the short term, London gold continues to face significant downward pressure against the backdrop of sustained hawkish expectations from the Fed and a strengthening US dollar and Treasury yields. However, the current price is already in an oversold state, creating a demand for a technical correction. It is highly likely to maintain a consolidation range between $4150 and $4230. If the price can stabilize above $4200 during the day, accompanied by the RSI breaking above 50 and a confirmed MACD golden cross, the rebound could extend towards the $4220-$4230 area. Conversely, if the price breaks below the $4170 support level, bearish forces are likely to regain strength, potentially pushing the price down towards the $4100 key level.
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