China Securities Co., Ltd.: Gold to Revert to Its Fundamental Drivers Post-Excessive Liquidity Pricing

Deep News05-22 11:31

If the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be said to have torn the fabric of the old global order, then the depth of geopolitical maneuvering continues to advance. Therefore, the fundamental drivers for gold have not concluded. Benefiting from this conflict washing away excessive liquidity pricing, future price increases for gold may become more gradual.

According to a research report from China Securities Co., Ltd., gold, which was highly popular in 2025, entered a phase of relative "quiet" in 2026 due to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Although gold prices remained firm, they weakened significantly compared to other assets such as equities, copper, and oil. Why did the U.S.-Iran confrontation impact and suppress gold prices? The root cause lies in the U.S.-Iran dynamic driving inflation expectations, leading to a subsequent retreat in liquidity pricing, which was precisely the reason for the surge in gold prices since September of last year.

After the retreat of excessive liquidity pricing, gold will revert to its own "fundamental drivers"—namely, central bank gold purchases spurred by order reconstruction and de-dollarization. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict tore the global old order, then the depth of geopolitical games continues to move forward. Therefore, the fundamental case for gold is not over. Benefiting from this conflict washing away excessive liquidity pricing, future price increases for gold may become more gradual.

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