As markets prepare to reopen after the Spring Festival holiday, here is a recap of major developments and the latest analysis from top securities firms.
Key Holiday Events: 1. In a landmark ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court declared the Trump administration's broad tariff policies illegal. Subsequently, former President Trump announced an immediate 15% global tariff on all imports entering the United States. To implement this, Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, a legal tool previously unused for tariffs. This provision allows the U.S. president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, unless extended by Congress, which trade experts believe is unlikely. The move is seen as providing the Trump team time to develop more targeted tariff strategies using other legal measures.
2. China's Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to revoke its unilateral tariff measures against trading partners. A spokesperson stated that China is thoroughly assessing the ruling's content and impact and will closely monitor any alternative measures the U.S. might take, while firmly safeguarding China's interests.
3. Reports suggest Trump is considering a "limited strike" followed by a larger military action against Iran to compel the country to abandon nuclear weapons development. Potential targets may include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, nuclear facilities, and ballistic missile sites.
4. Robots featured prominently in the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, with models from Unitree Robotics, Magic Atom, Galaxy General, and Songyan Power participating in various performances. The gala's chief director noted the high "concentration" of robots, aiming to showcase the comprehensive development of China's robotics industry.
5. OpenAI has significantly reduced its computing infrastructure spending target to $600 billion, down from a previously announced $1.4 trillion commitment.
6. Chinese AI companies Zhipu and MiniMax saw substantial gains during the holiday, with their market capitalizations briefly exceeding HK$300 billion. However, on February 23, both stocks retreated sharply—Zhipu fell 22.76% and MiniMax dropped 13.35—erasing nearly HK$100 billion in combined market value from their February 20 peaks.
7. A review of global asset performance during the Spring Festival holiday indicated varied movements across markets.
Latest Analysis from Top Securities Firms: 1. CITIC Securities highlighted that AI coding capabilities are leading to exponential growth in global code volume, while physical production and income expansion lag. This may result in code inflation, excess execution capacity, intensified competition, and lower returns on capital. Industries are categorized based on physical dependency and regulatory/emotional barriers. The gap between beneficiaries of physical scarcity and those negatively impacted by code inflation is expected to widen. For A-shares, manufacturing and finance sectors may be less affected by AI disruptions compared to U.S. and Hong Kong markets. Post-holiday, the spring rally is likely to continue, with price increases remaining a key theme.
2. Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy noted a stable start for A-shares in the Year of the Horse, influenced by U.S.-Iran tensions, Federal Reserve rate cut uncertainties, and the U.S. tariff ruling. Global asset responses included rising oil prices, rebounds in gold and silver, and mixed risk appetite.
3. Huaan Strategy anticipates a positive market opening after the holiday, though sustained gains are uncertain. Geopolitical and U.S. tariff policies may cause fluctuations. Post-holiday focus may shift to expectations around the "Two Sessions." Investors are advised to prioritize stability and certainty, with attention on sectors like storage, chemicals, and machinery.
4. Guojin Strategy suggested that market rebalancing hinges on AI's macroeconomic impact combined with monetary and policy choices. Investment is broadening beyond AI to wider实体 sectors. Expected U.S. rate cuts could support global manufacturing recovery, potentially enhancing the valuation of Chinese assets.
5. China Merchants Strategy expects a震荡上行 trend post-holiday, driven by cyclical price increases and AI theme diffusion. The upcoming "Two Sessions" and potential infrastructure projects may stabilize investment expectations. PPI recovery and ample liquidity could support market gains.
6. China Securities Strategy highlighted strong global markets during the holiday, with no major risk events. A-shares may begin a new upward trend, with a focus on technology and resources sectors, including AI, robotics, precious metals, and oil.
7. Soochow Strategy projected a positive start for A-shares, supported by global market gains and stable liquidity expectations. Domestic demand recovery and tech themes like robotics and AI models are positive factors. The "Two Sessions" and potential U.S.-China diplomatic engagement may bolster market stability.
8. Industrial Strategy remains optimistic about post-holiday gains, citing global liquidity adjustments, geopolitical tensions, and the tariff ruling. AI and resources are key themes, with "weak dollar assets" like equities and precious metals performing well.
9. GF Strategy observed continued bullish sentiment in non-U.S. markets during the holiday, which may benefit A-shares. Global liquidity remains ample, potentially attracting foreign capital to Chinese stocks with positive changes.
10. Huaxi Strategy anticipates a "red envelope行情" for A-shares after the holiday, driven by tech sector performance, stable RMB exchange rates, and密集 catalysts in robotics, AI, and storage.
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