The international gold price has initiated a continuous upward trend since August 4, climbing from $4,100 per ounce to above $4,300 per ounce. According to Wind data, as of 17:00 on August 6, the spot price of London gold reached an intraday high of $4,304.15 per ounce, setting a new phase high since June 19.
The recent significant rally in gold prices is the result of multiple factors working in concert. Shi Jialiang, Assistant General Manager of the Industrial Development Headquarters at Zhongtai Futures, stated that the slowdown in U.S. second-quarter economic growth, the cooling inflation indicated by the June core PCE data, diminished market expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes this year, a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields from highs, coupled with a renewed inflow of speculative capital, have collectively boosted gold prices.
Regarding the future direction of international gold prices, industry experts believe there is still room for upside in the short term. In the short run, Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at东方金诚, believes the current rally is a phase-driven rebound fueled by factors such as easing geopolitical tensions and cooling expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes. There is still potential for further upside in the short term, but the subsequent trend will depend on changes in geopolitical risks, fundamental economic data, and other factors. On a macro level, the Fed's policy stance of "keeping rates high for longer" has not fundamentally changed, and real interest rates are expected to remain elevated and volatile, lacking support for a sustained trend in gold prices.
Liu Siyuan, Chief Analyst at领秀财经, commented to reporters that although the rapid gold price surge faces pressure from profit-taking, short-term sensitive capital will continue to provide momentum for gold price increases. Looking at the medium to long term, Shi Jialiang believes that long-term bullish factors, such as the continued increase in gold reserves by major global central banks and the asset's appeal to asset allocation capital, have not changed.申银万国期货 also analyzed that the precious metals price center has a solid foundation for upward movement. The global geopolitical risk center has risen, while U.S. fiscal pressures have intensified, and the de-dollarization process will continue to advance, sustaining the trend of global central banks increasing their gold reserves.
Recent data from the World Gold Council shows that in the second quarter, global central banks and other official institutions added a net 289 tons of gold reserves, a 62% increase year-on-year, with multiple central banks actively buying gold. The council's "2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey" revealed that 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves over the next year. Additionally, according to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China added 40.12 tons of gold reserves in the first half of 2026, bringing its total reserves to 2,346.45 tons by the end of June, ranking fifth globally. From November 2024 to June 2026, China has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months.
Faced with gold price volatility, how should ordinary investors allocate gold rationally? Qu Rui suggests that those with a need for gold jewelry can purchase in batches during price corrections, prioritizing brand workmanship fees and premiums, avoiding short-term price speculation to prevent cost increases from chasing rallies. For investors with a medium to long-term asset allocation horizon, it is recommended to use low-volatility instruments like gold ETFs and physical gold bars, adopting a strategy of systematic fixed investment or adding positions during major dips, with allocation controlled at no more than 15% of total assets, holding long-term to fully realize their allocation value.
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