Plug Power: Last Chance To Board The Hydrogen Hype Train

seekingalpha2021-05-18

Summary With the financial restatements out of the way, Plug investors can breath a little easier. The company has ambitious profitability targets and is making the right moves to achieve them. ...

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Comments

Alykrunch
2021-05-18
Alykrunch
Up and up
- SC_stock:
  Good luck. buY in?
- SC_stock:
  Thanks
- Alykrunch:
  Waiting
JLUljs
2021-05-18
JLUljs
Hydrogen fuel cell vs Tesla's batteries...which one is more promising? [思考]
lavin
2021-05-18
lavin
Ok
janelie
2021-05-18
janelie
Ok great
- Juliantotans:
  like
- Juliantotans:
  oke
WSY_CW
2021-05-18
WSY_CW
I see
- Victan:
  [Smile]
- WSY_CW:
  Ok
ALIBINHASSAN
2021-05-18
ALIBINHASSAN
Time to buy PLUG and plug all the holes in your trading. LnC tks.

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(PLUG) rallied hard following the restatements of its financial accounts of the last three years. As expected, this did not have any material effects on sales and cash balance, but it does bring to the surface the lackluster performance in terms of profit margins. Having said this, with plenty of cash in hand, I think Plug can increase its profitability by pursuing growth in higher-margin areas and reducing costs through economies of scale and integration.\nThe Restatements\nThe much-awaited financial restatements finally came out on Friday the 14th of May. Although it hasn't actually changed at all, let's start by reviewing the state of Plug's balance sheet.\nSource:10-K\nAs of 2020, Plug Power has $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Total assets equal $2.25 billion, which triples total liabilities. In terms of financial health, the company has around 47% of Debt to Equity. Plug has plenty of cash to cover immediate liabilities, but this is to be expected of a company that can't rely on its revenues yet. Speaking of which, let's move on to the income statement:\nSource:10-K\nStarting with revenue, \"sales of fuel cell systems and related infrastructure\", which is the main driver of revenues, came in at a negative $94.295 million. This can be attributed to the costs associated with the Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)Warrants. In fact, the only segment that saw actual growth was Power Purchase Agreements.\nThe most significant changes happened in cost of revenues and R&D. Basically, over the past 3 years Plug has overstated its R&D expenses to the tune of $63 million. Moving these to costs of revenues shrinks the company's gross margins.\nSource:10-K\nAbove we can see what the actual Gross Profit/Loss and Gross Margin has been in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Due in large part to the Amazon and Walmart Inc.(NYSE:WMT)warrants, Plug lost almost half a billion dollars in 2020. However, in 2019 the company did achieve a 34.7% gross margin in its main segment, with an overall gross margin of 4.6%. This is significantly lower than what theprevious 10-Kshowed, a margin of 12.1% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2018.\nHowever, it is worth mentioning that the margin for \"sales of fuel cell systems and related infrastructure\", which accounted in 2019 for around ⅔ of revenues, was largely unchanged, going from 35.4% to 34.7%. The change was also smaller than 1% in 2018.\nThe bottom line is, that while Plug Power remains in a strong financial position and has some good growth prospects, it has misled investors over its profitability. The company now sets a target of 20% EBITDA margin by 2024. But can management deliver?\nThe Path to Profitability\nPlug Power has, for the most part, realized its growth objectives, but in doing so, it has sacrificed profitability. Two of its main clients, Walmart and Amazon have benefitted from very favorable terms in their service contracts. In other words, while Plug makes some decent money on the sale of its fuel cells, it is still losing money in the servicing of this technology. However, the company is now taking the right steps in the right direction.\nFirstly, the company is moving towards vertically integrating its operations, which could help reduce costs and increase synergies. We can find a couple of examples of this in the most recent moves Plug has made through Joint Ventures. Through itspartnership with AccionaS.A. (OTCPK:ACXIF), Plug Power will now have exposure to the actual production of green hydrogen. Plug also entered a JV with SK group to build a Gigafactory in South Korea.\nThese moves don't only help Plug by vertically integrating it, but also give it exposure to the production of green energy and the benefits associated with it, namely government grants. As I discussed in myprevious article on Plug,both the US and Europe are pouring money into hydrogen.\nAnother boon to profitability will be the expiry of the current contracts the company has with Amazon and Walmart. For starters, the 10-K already makes a point of saying that no more significant costs should come from the Amazon warrants, which have been mostly exercised. On top of that, Plug is now in a better situation to negotiate more favorable deals going forward.\nTo sum up, I am encouraged by Plug's sales of fuel cells, which even after the restatements remains a profitable segment. On top of that, the overhang of the Amazon and Walmart warrants will be ending soon, and finally, we have Plug increasing its exposure to hydrogen production plus the potential tailwind that government aid could give to Plug's margins.\nWith a strong balance sheet, concrete future growth initiatives, and an encouraging political landscape, it doesn't seem surprising that institutions have been piling back into the stock. According tofintel.io, over 70% of shares are now held by institutions.\nRisks\nAn investment in Plug Power is not without risks, though some of these have dissipated following the latest restatements. Most notably, the viability of hydrogen technology remains a mystery. I think that green and blue hydrogen can work well in the transition towards a green economy, and the fact that one of the largest companies in the world (Amazon), already uses it is proof that it is viable on some level. However, hydrogen has to compete with other sources of energy, be it renewables like solar, or less carbon-intensive ones like nuclear or natural gas.\nOn a more immediate front, the company is facing ashareholder lawsuit, as pointed out by fellow SA contributor InvestOhTrader. However, it seems unlikely that this will amount to much, since proving any wrongdoing will be hard. Furthermore, costs related to this should be covered by insurance.\nTakeaway\nPlug Power is certainly a divisive company. It's possible to see it as a potential multi-bagger that will revolutionize the future of energy. However, given its past and recent history, I fully understand skeptical investors and distrust management. Plug is not for everyone, but I see compelling reasons to invest a conservative in this company. Given the excitement produced by the stock, it may only take a couple of good quarters for Plug to revisit its previous ATH, and I believe things are falling in line for that to happen over the next year.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":194891846,"gmtCreate":1621351593085,"gmtModify":1704356314889,"author":{"id":"3577443068440656","authorId":"3577443068440656","name":"Alykrunch","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31f6afa1679347244125537288dce699","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577443068440656","idStr":"3577443068440656"},"htmlText":"Up and up&nbsp;","listText":"Up and up&nbsp;","text":"Up and up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194891846","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4369598,"gmtCreate":1621356975154,"gmtModify":1680789539573,"authorId":3581853307661587,"author":{"id":3581853307661587,"idStr":"3581853307661587","authorId":3581853307661587,"name":"SC_stock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed66f31eef2c2bf0ffa59e556be6975","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194891846,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good luck. buY in?","text":"Good luck. buY in?","html":"Good luck. buY in?"},{"id":4620674,"gmtCreate":1623085508093,"gmtModify":1663228140130,"authorId":3581853307661587,"author":{"id":3581853307661587,"idStr":"3581853307661587","authorId":3581853307661587,"name":"SC_stock","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ed66f31eef2c2bf0ffa59e556be6975","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194891846,"type":1,"supId":4369598,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":4567490,"gmtCreate":1622742264718,"gmtModify":1663227901750,"authorId":3577443068440656,"author":{"id":3577443068440656,"idStr":"3577443068440656","authorId":3577443068440656,"name":"Alykrunch","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31f6afa1679347244125537288dce699","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194891846,"type":1,"supId":4369598,"prevId":0,"content":"Waiting ","text":"Waiting ","html":"Waiting "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194353256,"gmtCreate":1621344942275,"gmtModify":1704356122892,"author":{"id":"3580016166379606","authorId":"3580016166379606","name":"JLUljs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b88b4c5c83f1a751fffbd8db4211e2","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84859c65fc2d7681e28f6b8e9b0535a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580016166379606","idStr":"3580016166379606"},"htmlText":"Hydrogen fuel cell vs Tesla's batteries...which one is more promising?&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"Hydrogen fuel cell vs Tesla's batteries...which one is more promising?&nbsp;[思考]&nbsp;","text":"Hydrogen fuel cell vs Tesla's batteries...which one is more promising? [思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194353256","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194353842,"gmtCreate":1621344934386,"gmtModify":1704356122731,"author":{"id":"3574887882529371","authorId":"3574887882529371","name":"lavin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574887882529371","idStr":"3574887882529371"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194353842","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194359803,"gmtCreate":1621344891502,"gmtModify":1704356121430,"author":{"id":"3579574135370824","authorId":"3579574135370824","name":"janelie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f929201b4c664d977cd55eb2e9c16841","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579574135370824","idStr":"3579574135370824"},"htmlText":"Ok great","listText":"Ok great","text":"Ok great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194359803","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4370333,"gmtCreate":1621376704464,"gmtModify":1680789553061,"authorId":3579167848320394,"author":{"id":3579167848320394,"idStr":"3579167848320394","authorId":3579167848320394,"name":"Juliantotans","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ef95ca83ff749e3e3273525996642c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194359803,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"},{"id":4370334,"gmtCreate":1621376713162,"gmtModify":1680789551720,"authorId":3579167848320394,"author":{"id":3579167848320394,"idStr":"3579167848320394","authorId":3579167848320394,"name":"Juliantotans","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ef95ca83ff749e3e3273525996642c1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194359803,"type":1,"supId":4370333,"prevId":0,"content":"oke","text":"oke","html":"oke"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194384648,"gmtCreate":1621343378384,"gmtModify":1704356091665,"author":{"id":"3572325457247882","authorId":"3572325457247882","name":"WSY_CW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafe2a785d34cf29f57cc4b7002bb691","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572325457247882","idStr":"3572325457247882"},"htmlText":"I see","listText":"I see","text":"I see","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194384648","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4367569,"gmtCreate":1621343514409,"gmtModify":1680789507918,"authorId":3572325441512950,"author":{"id":3572325441512950,"idStr":"3572325441512950","authorId":3572325441512950,"name":"Victan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194384648,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Smile]","text":"[Smile]","html":"[Smile]"},{"id":4367551,"gmtCreate":1621343464335,"gmtModify":1680789504325,"authorId":3572325457247882,"author":{"id":3572325457247882,"idStr":"3572325457247882","authorId":3572325457247882,"name":"WSY_CW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dafe2a785d34cf29f57cc4b7002bb691","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194384648,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":194386743,"gmtCreate":1621343181182,"gmtModify":1704356088105,"author":{"id":"3570479349727470","authorId":"3570479349727470","name":"ALIBINHASSAN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a7c31b79e7bff28841c5f18dca737f4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570479349727470","idStr":"3570479349727470"},"htmlText":"Time to buy PLUG and plug all the holes in your trading. LnC tks.","listText":"Time to buy PLUG and plug all the holes in your trading. LnC tks.","text":"Time to buy PLUG and plug all the holes in your trading. LnC tks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194386743","repostId":1142739720,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":33,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1142739720"}