Market analysis On the economic data front, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the previous week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since last November. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, reaching a new two-year low. Furthermore, former US President Donald Trump stated that, despite the US Department of Justice threatening a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, he currently has no plans to dismiss Powell. Trump indicated a preference for selecting the next Fed Chair between former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and former National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
Futures quotes and trading volume: On 2026-01-15, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, representing a change of -0.52% compared to the previous trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,035.22 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, rising 0.08% compared to yesterday's afternoon session close. On 2026-01-15, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the prior trading day's close. The day's trading volume was 1,463,056 contracts, with open interest standing at 344,468 contracts. In yesterday's night session, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 22,980 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, increasing 1.87% compared to the afternoon session close.
US Treasury yield and spread monitoring: On 2026-01-15, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.609%, narrowing by 1.7 basis points compared to the prior session.
SHFE gold and silver open interest and volume changes: On 2026-01-15, for the Au2602 contract, long positions decreased by 7,964 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions changed by -890 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts last trading day was 392,878 contracts, a change of -2.23% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 678 contracts, while short positions changed by 2,006 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts last trading day was 3,117,047 contracts, a significant change of 14.39% from the previous session.
Precious metals ETF holdings tracking: Regarding precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,074.23 tonnes yesterday, unchanged from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 16,242 tonnes, a decrease of 79 tonnes from the day before.
Precious metals arbitrage tracking: Futures-spot basis: On 2026-01-15, for domestic premiums, the gold domestic premium was 1.57 yuan/gram, while the silver domestic premium was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. Gold-silver ratio: The price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts yesterday was approximately 45.67, a slight change of -0.09% from the previous day. The external market gold-silver ratio was 50.86, changing by -4.76% compared to the last session.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market monitoring for the last trading day (2026-01-15) showed that SGE gold trading volume was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the prior day. Silver trading volume was 657,202 kilograms, changing by -19.09%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms.
Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish Current market risk sentiment is showing signs of growth, which may slightly enhance investment demand for gold. Consequently, gold prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong, fluctuating pattern in the near term. The Au2602 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 1,020 yuan/gram to 1,045 yuan/gram.
Silver: Cautiously Bullish Silver is currently experiencing wide fluctuations, but due to the resurgence in risk sentiment, silver prices appear slightly stronger relative to gold. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue narrowing. However, silver's own price is also forecast to maintain a strong, volatile pattern. The Ag2604 contract is projected to fluctuate within a range of 22,700 yuan/kilogram to 24,000 yuan/kilogram.
Arbitrage: Sell the gold-silver ratio on rallies. Options: Hold off for now.
Risks Overseas liquidity risk. Speculative positions continuing to exit the market.
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