Broadleaf pulp overseas offers continue to rise, while domestic price increases slow down. The spot market price trend for imported wood pulp in December showed a divergent pattern, with rigid demand transactions dominating the market. Broadleaf pulp prices increased in December, white cardboard producers continued to issue price hike notices, cultural paper prices stabilized with profits slightly under pressure. The institution anticipates pulp prices will continue to rise in January 2026, white paper prices will gradually transmit increases, and black paper will maintain its upward trend. The main views of GTHT are as follows:
Cultural Paper: Mills Raise Prices to Stabilize Terminal Prices, Weak Demand Persists. As of December 29th, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high-white offset paper in December was 4,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% month-on-month. The main reasons affecting the price change are: 1) Price increases announced by paper mills at the beginning of the month failed to materialize, leading to strong market wait-and-see sentiment; 2) Year-end distributor purchases were rational, leading to inventory accumulation in paper enterprises during the first and middle ten days of the month; 3) Delivery of publishing orders alleviated inventory pressure, driving some transaction increases for standard-white offset paper; 4) The wood pulp market saw slight increases, but the transmission efficiency from pulp to paper was average.
White Cardboard: Price Hike Notices Drive Continued Price Increases, Inventory Levels Remain Low. As of December 29th, the monthly average transaction price including tax for 250-400g sheet-fed white cardboard was 4,237 yuan/ton, up 0.98% month-on-month but down 0.16% year-on-year. Key factors influencing the price include: 1) Paper prices were at low levels with cost pressures, prompting major mills to persist in pushing for hikes; 2) Traders showed divergent responses to the increases, with some raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton and others focusing on volume sales to reduce inventory; 3) Terminal orders were mixed and fell short of expectations, while price declines in other packaging papers transmitted negative sentiment.
Containerboard & Corrugated Paper: Mills Continue Pushing for Hikes, Profits Under Pressure. As of December 29th, the monthly average price for China AA-grade 120g corrugated paper was 3,129 yuan/ton, down 1.29% month-on-month but up 8.50% year-on-year. Primary reasons for the price movement are: 1) On the supply side, continued price hikes by major mills in the first ten days and discounted sales by small/medium mills led to divergent market sentiment; in the middle and late ten days, major mills maintained prices with settlements exceeding expectations, but market overselling pushed transaction focus lower; 2) On the cost side, waste paper prices continued to fall with an accelerated decline mid-month, negatively impacting paper prices, though a rebound at month-end mitigated the negative pressure; 3) On the demand side, order improvements in the packaging segment were limited with bearish future expectations; downstream players mainly consumed existing inventories, increasing mill inventory pressure and suppressing prices, while restocking at month-end was limited.
Waste Paper: Increased Domestic Supply Leads to Overall Price Decline. As of December 29th, the monthly average market price for mixed waste paper was 1,767 yuan/ton, down 6.18% month-on-month but up 10.79% year-on-year. Major factors influencing the price trend include: 1) Packing stations held significant profitable inventory. As the willingness to sell increased, the supply of mixed waste paper rose; 2) Bearish sentiment spread among downstream paper mills. As sales of finished paper weakened, mills shifted to purchasing waste paper at lower prices; 3) Leading paper enterprises repeatedly cut their purchasing prices multiple times, causing bearish market sentiment to peak and consequently driving down the market price of mixed waste paper.
Wood Pulp: Broadleaf Pulp Overseas Offers Continue Rising, Domestic Price Increases Slow. The spot market price trend for imported wood pulp in December showed a divergent pattern, with rigid demand transactions dominating the market. Key reasons affecting the price trend are: 1) The main pulp futures contract fluctuated upwards, combined with continuous price increases for broadleaf pulp overseas offers, raising traders' cost expectations and driving up the average prices for both softwood and broadleaf pulp; 2) Unbleached pulp faced ample supply but insufficient demand, putting downward pressure on its average price; 3) Chemi-mechanical pulp maintained stable supply and demand with tight available supply, leading to a slight increase in its average price.
Risk提示：Disruptions in overseas wood pulp supply chains, weaker-than-expected downstream consumer demand, etc.
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