Recent trading has seen significant volatility in lithium carbonate futures, with prices rising by 33.5% since the start of the year. According to a Mysteel survey, Zimbabwe's export ban on unprocessed lithium ores has substantially impacted shipments. While cargoes already shipped before the ban (approximately 25,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate) can arrive normally, all subsequent shipments of unprocessed minerals, including lithium sulfate and lithium concentrate, have been suspended. The timeline for lifting the ban remains undetermined, constraining medium-term raw material supply. Mysteel anticipates that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate within a range of 130,000 to 170,000 yuan per ton in the short term.
On February 25, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, including in-transit shipments. This suspension applies to all minerals currently being transported and has no clear resumption schedule. The measure aims to strengthen the mineral regulatory and accountability framework under the national interest. Under the new regulations, only mining enterprises holding valid mining rights and approved to establish beneficiation plants will qualify for export rights in the future, with agents and third-party traders explicitly excluded.
Official data indicates Zimbabwe holds one of Africa's largest lithium reserves and is a major global producer, with estimated resources of 126 million tonnes. The country has progressively tightened its mineral export policies in recent years, having imposed additional taxes on lithium concentrate exports starting in 2026. Previously, Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines stated in 2025 that the government planned to ban concentrate exports from 2027 to promote the development of local mineral processing capacity and retain value from its mineral resources. The current comprehensive export suspension is seen as a further step in implementing this policy direction.
It is reported that several A-share listed companies, including Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group Co., Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, Tianhua New Energy, and Yahua Industrial Group, have lithium-related operations in Zimbabwe. In response to the suspension of lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe, Sinomine Resource Group confirmed that all exports of lithium concentrate by Chinese entities in Zimbabwe have been halted, pending further detailed policy guidelines. Huayou Cobalt stated that its mining license was issued by the local Ministry of Mines, and the specific impact remains uncertain. Yahua Industrial Group indicated it had already shipped all lithium concentrate produced in Zimbabwe ahead of the ban. The company can continue to apply for export permits by submitting supplementary documentation and has begun this process.
UBS noted that the low lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 led to the exit of over 30% of global high-cost production capacity. Many lithium mine expansion projects have been delayed. The global lithium market has now entered its third price super-cycle. UBS has significantly raised its 2026 spodumene price forecast by 74% to $3,131 per ton and its lithium carbonate forecast to $26,000 per ton. The core driver of this cycle is no longer solely electric vehicles but a global surge in energy storage demand. Global demand is projected to double to 3.4 million tonnes by 2030; by 2035, energy storage applications are expected to account for 42% of total global lithium demand.
A Great Wall Securities research report suggested that the lithium carbonate market in March is expected to see both supply and demand increase. On the supply side, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and domestic supply is generally stable. On the demand side, energy storage expectations remain supportive, and downstream purchasing willingness has strengthened following price adjustments. Total industry inventories remain at low levels and continued to decrease this week, providing some support for prices.
Related concept stocks: GANFENGLITHIUM (01772): The company holds a 50% controlling stake in the large-scale Goulamina spodumene project in Zimbabwe, which includes a supporting beneficiation plant. As a global lithium industry leader, Ganfeng has strong control over upstream resources. If its Zimbabwe project already possesses, or can quickly adapt to meet, the deep-processing capabilities required by the new regulations, it would directly benefit from the lithium price rebound driven by supply contraction. Furthermore, its substantial inventory and diversified sources (from Australia, Argentina, etc.) can hedge risks associated with any single region.
TIANQI LITHIUM (09696): Tianqi's core assets are in Australia (Greenbushes) and Chile (SQM), but it possesses strong global supply chain management capabilities. The company has minimal direct exposure in Zimbabwe and is primarily driven by the macro-level benefits of rising lithium prices. Zimbabwe's export ban would reduce global marginal supply, supporting lithium carbonate/hydroxide prices and thereby improving Tianqi's profit outlook.
ZIJIN MINING (02899): As of 2025, ZIJIN MINING's lithium carbonate equivalent resources reached 18.7 million tonnes, ranking it tenth globally in terms of production. According to its latest plan, the company aims for lithium carbonate equivalent production to reach 120,000 tonnes in 2026; this figure is projected to jump to between 270,000 and 320,000 tonnes by 2028.
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