January 23: In the previous trading session on Thursday (January 22), international gold prices experienced a brief pullback before rebounding and rising again, refreshing the historical high and closing positively with stability. This action demonstrated the momentum established after breaking through the trendline resistance earlier in the week, suggesting an enhanced bullish outlook for the future. A new bull market space has been opened, paving the way for gold to advance towards even higher levels and potentially unimaginable peaks.
Specifically, the price of gold opened the Asian session at $4832.67 per ounce, initially declining to record an intraday low of $4772.18 before rebounding. During the European session, it consolidated sideways within the range of $4815 to $4836. The U.S. session then saw another strong rally that continued until the close, touching an intraday high of $4940.31. It ultimately stabilized and closed at $4936.01, marking a daily trading range of $168.13, a gain of $103.34, and an increase of 2.14%.
The price movement was influenced by several factors. Early in the Asian session, prices dipped due to Trump downplaying threats regarding Greenland and Iran, along with the withdrawal of tariff threats. However, strong market buying interest provided support, and a weakening U.S. dollar limited the extent of gold's adjustment. Later, during the U.S. session, Trump's warning of "significant retaliation" if Europe were to sell off U.S. assets reignited market risk aversion and heightened uncertainty. Additionally, gold benefited from persistent geopolitical tensions, a decline in the U.S. dollar index, and market expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, collectively restoring its appeal.
Looking ahead to today, Friday (January 23), international gold is trading with a slight bullish bias in the early Asian session. Bullish momentum remains robust, with no reversal in the technical trend, and the U.S. dollar index is showing weakness. Therefore, the strategy for the day remains to look for buying opportunities on dips.
Key data releases to watch today include the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for January, the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Flash for January, the University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index for January, the final one-year inflation expectations for January, and the Conference Board Leading Index month-on-month for November. Overall market expectations lean towards being negative for the dollar, but judging by yesterday's data releases, the impact is expected to be limited. Intraday price action is anticipated to be either range-bound or to strengthen further, hence the operational strategy continues to favor buying on pullbacks.
Fundamentally, although Trump has downplayed the Greenland threat, underlying geopolitical concerns persist. His warning of "significant retaliation" against potential European sales of U.S. assets continues to inject a high degree of uncertainty into the market. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions have never fully dissipated over the past decade, meaning such concerns provide a long-term supportive backdrop for gold.
Additionally, market expectations still firmly point to the Fed implementing two rate cuts in the second half of the year, keeping gold within the bullish trend typical of a rate-cutting cycle. Consequently, overall, gold prices maintain a positive outlook for the year. Looking at the year's target, the price has already surpassed expectations by approaching the $5,000 mark, indicating further upside potential, with a path towards the $5,500-$6,000 range.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold opened this month with strong upward momentum, continuing to trade above the key trendline resistance. It has recovered the retreat seen in December and is persistently setting new highs. This action effectively negates the previously observed topping pattern and bearish expectations. If this momentum holds for the remainder of the month without forming a significant bearish reversal pattern like an inverted hammer, it will further open new bull market territory for the year, potentially leading to gains exceeding 30% and targeting the $5,500-$6,000 area.
Conversely, if the monthly candle closes as an inverted hammer back within the trendline, it would warrant caution for a potential prolonged consolidation or a deeper correction. However, the probability of this scenario currently appears very low.
On the weekly chart, after several consecutive weeks of strength, gold has broken above the upper Bollinger Band this week, which now turns into support. The key focus will be on next week's close. A pullback would bring the support of the 5 and 10-week moving averages into view, which could present another opportunity to enter long positions. Alternatively, another bullish weekly close would suggest continuing the trend-following bullish strategy.
On the daily chart, since breaking through the ascending trendline resistance, bullish momentum has been powerful, with prices consistently trading above this level. This indicates the market is steadily advancing into new bullish territory. The previous ascending trendline resistance has now transformed into support; any pullback to this level would also offer another chance to initiate long positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday operational level ideas are provided for reference. Specific entry and exit points should be confirmed based on real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $4900 or $4860; Resistance levels are around $4982 or $5000. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $95.60 or $94.20; Resistance levels are around $99.60 or $100.30.
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