An analysis of the latest trends in gold is presented.
On June 30th, the fundamental factors for gold were analyzed. Early in the Asian trading session on Tuesday, June 30th, spot gold was weak and declining, currently trading around $3965 per ounce. The global gold market is experiencing significant volatility. On Monday, June 29th, the spot gold price plummeted nearly 2% at one point, touching the $4000 key level, and ultimately closed down 1.58% at approximately $4016.45 per ounce. The August U.S. gold futures contract also fell 1.4%, settling at $4038.9. This decline underscores the severe challenge facing gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset under the triple pressures of geopolitical conflict, economic data expectations, and monetary policy.
The technical analysis for gold is as follows. Regarding the price action, gold opened slightly lower yesterday at $4079, briefly surged to the daily high of $4086 before facing selling pressure and plunging. It continued to fluctuate lower, repeatedly setting new intraday lows, dipped to the $4000 key level, and then consolidated at low levels into the close, finally settling at $4016. The daily chart formed a full-bodied bearish candlestick with a significantly longer lower shadow than the upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure overhead. Only the $4000 level provided weak support, with no clear reversal signals yet. The overall technical indicators show a clear bearish pattern. Short-term moving averages have collectively turned downward, forming resistance, with the gold price consistently under pressure below these averages. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the MACD's green histogram continues to expand, showing ample bearish momentum. The long lower shadow on the daily chart merely represents a minor technical correction from oversold conditions and does not signify a reversal. Smaller timeframes further confirm the weak market. The four-hour chart shows a stepwise downward trend. The gold price has broken below all short-term moving averages, completely dismantling the prior bullish structure. The price is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, with any rebounds consistently suppressed by the middle band. The KDJ indicator has been in oversold territory for an extended period without forming an effective bullish crossover, indicating that bullish counter-attack momentum is completely exhausted. All rebounds in the market are merely technical corrections within the bearish trend. The bearish trend is even more pronounced on the hourly chart, with prices continuously making new lows and the strength of rebounds diminishing progressively, showing pulse-like weak corrections. The short-term moving averages are in a standard bearish alignment, and gold price rebounds are consistently suppressed by the MA5 and MA10 moving averages, forming a descending channel with lower highs and lower lows. The consolidation into the close represents a continuation pattern within the downtrend, with no signs of a bottom forming yet. Regarding resistance and support levels, previously broken support levels have now all turned into resistance. The core short-term resistance zone is $3985-$3995, an area with significant trapped positions, offering strong suppression. The previous high of $4035 is a medium-term strong resistance. The $3900 psychological support level is only a weak short-term support. If this level is effectively broken, gold will open up new downside space. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused on the $4000-$4030 zone, while key short-term support below is focused on the $3930-$3900 zone.
An analysis of the latest trends in crude oil is presented.
On Tuesday, June 30th (Beijing time), fundamental factors for crude oil were analyzed. Early in the Asian trading session, despite statements, Iran indicated no plans for any talks with the U.S. in the coming days, and the defense minister stated that the military is prepared to take independent action against Iran. Consequently, oil prices were once again supported by geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. crude oil is currently trading around $70.23 per barrel. Brent crude rose 0.19% on Monday to $73.61 per barrel. Although U.S. crude closed lower, it once broke above $71 per barrel during the session. The mutual strikes over the weekend highlighted the fragility of the temporary peace agreement. However, the market maintains cautious optimism about the continued restoration of energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which limited the gains.
The technical analysis for crude oil is as follows. From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is a downtrend. The oil price has broken below the lower boundary support that held for over three months, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is expected that the medium-term trend for crude oil will be primarily downward. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the price action shows consolidation around $70, with the short-term objective trend direction being sideways. Bullish and bearish forces are in a stalemate. The oil price has slightly broken above the depicted downtrend line. It is anticipated that today's crude oil price action will primarily fluctuate around this trendline. In summary, for today's crude oil trading, the suggested strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance above is focused on the $72.5-$74.5 zone, while key short-term support below is focused on the $68.5-$66.5 zone.
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