As joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran continue, the critical Strait of Hormuz has become effectively blocked, making it a real possibility that multiple countries could soon face oil depletion.
In a recent report, Goldman Sachs strategist Dan Struyven wrote, "The final tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now reaching their destinations, and market concerns over potential oil shortages are intensifying."
Struyven added, "Our tripartite analysis indicates that supplies of petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Asia are already at very low levels. Multiple Asian nations will experience cross-category energy shortages in April. The limited remaining oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alternative import channels, export control measures, and domestic petroleum reserves may cushion the impact of the strait's closure on gasoline and diesel supplies. However, the risk of shortages in fuel oil and naphtha remains extremely high, particularly in Asia."
As "Operation Epic Fury" continues, international oil prices are experiencing sharp volatility.
Over the past two weeks, oil prices have shown extreme fluctuations, recently surging to their highest levels since the military action began in late February.
In late March, oil prices dipped slightly below $100 per barrel due to brief market expectations of a de-escalation. However, following President Trump's primetime address on April 1, prices surged significantly. The President pledged in his speech to "deliver an exceedingly heavy blow" to Iran within the next two to three weeks, effectively signaling that the conflict will not end soon.
As a result, on April 2, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged by 11.4% to $111.54 per barrel, while Brent crude rose to $109.03 per barrel.
Last weekend, the President escalated his rhetoric on the conflict further, which is likely to push oil prices even higher and leaves the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz hanging by a thread.
President Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social: "Open the Strait immediately, or you will go to hell." He warned that Tehran would face severe consequences if it failed to restore navigation through the strait by Monday's deadline.
On the same platform, he also stated: "Tuesday will be Iran's power plant strike day and bridge strike day, both actions carried out together."
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway located between Oman and Iran and is the world's most crucial oil transit chokepoint. It handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for about 20% of global seaborne oil supply.
Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, an average of about 138 vessels passed through the strait daily. Since the start of military operations, this number has plummeted by over 90%, often falling to single digits per day.
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