Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that Alibaba Group's investment strategy for Taobao Flash Purchase in 2026 is clear, with the strategic focus shifting entirely to "competing for absolute first place." This shift is expected to inject strong demand momentum into the instant delivery industry. Under anti-monopoly regulation, competition in the instant retail sector is becoming more compliant, which is expected to drive category expansion from catering and tea beverages towards categories with higher average order values, bringing more growth space to the logistics side. Regarding investment targets, the report is optimistic about the opportunities on the logistics side amid significant changes in the business flow side. It highly recommends SF INTRA-CITY (09699), which is continuously realizing profits and demonstrates significant third-party value, and also suggests paying attention to FlashEx (FLX.US). Shenwan Hongyuan's main views are as follows: The strategic upgrade of Alibaba's Flash Purchase will become the core incremental driver for instant delivery demand. Under anti-monopoly regulation, all categories in instant delivery are expected to experience healthy growth. Alibaba Group's investment strategy for Taobao Flash Purchase in 2026 is clear, with the strategic focus shifting entirely to "competing for absolute first place." On January 9th, the Office of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Committee stated that it had recently conducted an investigation and assessment of the market competition situation in the online food delivery platform service industry based on the "Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China." Shenwan Hongyuan believes that competition in the instant retail field is becoming more compliant. High-frequency subsidies have successfully cultivated user consumption habits, and the increase in subsidy efforts will directly drive the growth in the scale of instant delivery orders, becoming a key source of incremental demand for the industry. Instant delivery may trigger a new round of "arms race" among brands and merchants, and the logistics side is expected to benefit from a virtuous cycle. Shenwan Hongyuan previously suggested paying attention to the impact of the volume growth of instant delivery on merchants' various channel fulfillment models. Currently, besides catering and tea beverages, subsidies are further expanding into the department store category. Instant delivery has become an important channel that merchants cannot ignore, and it even has a significantly disruptive impact on some business models that originally relied on high timeliness and dense channel reach. In addition to subsidies from the platform side, proactive efforts by brand merchants are expected to bring a new round of incremental growth, driving the accelerated release of scale effects on the logistics side and forming a virtuous cycle. Platform competition benefits third-party logistics service providers. SF INTRA-CITY's value as an independent third party is significant; it benefits from order spillover from the food delivery competition, and its business growth and profit expectations are positive. During the "Double Eleven" period, SF INTRA-CITY's average daily intra-city delivery order volume increased by over 50% compared to the previous year. In terms of categories, catering orders have continued strong growth since the "food delivery competition," with beverage orders increasing by over 160% year-on-year and fast-food orders increasing by over 110% year-on-year. Furthermore, non-food categories such as supermarkets/department stores and cosmetics/jewelry achieved high double-digit year-on-year growth in order volume. As a neutral third-party platform, SF INTRA-CITY's performance across all channels during the major promotion period was impressive. It handled orders from Douyin, Meituan-W (03690), Taobao Flash Purchase, JD.com's Instant Delivery, and merchants' own platforms, all achieving significant growth. The growth and profit expectations for the 2026 food delivery business remain positive. Risk warnings include changes in e-commerce platform strategies, changes in regulatory policies, and costs growing beyond expectations.
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