November 10: On the previous trading day, Monday (November 9), international gold rebounded and closed higher, once again touching the trendline resistance level. Although there remains pressure of another pullback after hitting resistance, there are currently no obvious signs of weakening in the rebound, and the short-term outlook will continue to be treated as mildly bullish.
In terms of influencing factors, although the previous nonfarm payroll data was strong, its impact was limited before the results of the US October CPI and PPI data are released for further guidance. Additionally, Trump stated he sees positive momentum toward ending the Iran conflict and reiterated that another strike on Iran is unlikely. Middle East media reported progress in US-Iran nuclear talks, which pressured international oil prices into a sharp decline, easing inflation concerns, while a weakening US dollar also helped gold prices rebound and strengthen once again.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened in the Asian session at $4,064.56 per ounce, first recording an intraday low of $4,054.22, then rebounded and rallied to touch $4,134 by the 10 AM period, after which it pulled back to $4,085. After the European session opened, it rallied again to $4,130. Although it once again encountered resistance in the US session and retreated to the $4,100 mark, the latter half of the session saw another rally, refreshing the intraday high at $4,148.26, and finally settled steadily at $4,140.63. The daily amplitude was $94.04, with a gain of $76.07, or 1.87%.
Looking ahead to today, Tuesday (November 10): International gold opened with narrow-range movement, suppressed by resistance as well as strong nonfarm data and wait-and-see sentiment ahead of this week's CPI inflation data release. However, oil prices have already declined, so before the inflation data is released, gold prices will maintain a strong posture, with trading expected to be volatile or mildly bullish.
In the evening US session, the US October seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate and the US October seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate will be released. The market expects inflation to cool noticeably, which would be bullish for gold. If the data falls short of expectations, as long as it is below the previous reading or not significantly above it, it will be difficult to create sustained pressure on gold prices, and the trend will remain oscillating or rebounding.
Technically, on the monthly chart, gold has fallen below the Bollinger Band middle track, with the attached indicators maintaining bearish signals. However, the ZZ indicator shows the pullback has bottomed out, and the Bollinger Bands are tending to narrow, suggesting limited downside space. The medium-to-long-term outlook remains bullish for new highs. Therefore, the area near the 30-month moving average support can still serve as an opportunity to enter long positions for the long term.
On the weekly chart, after touching the 100-week moving average support, gold rebounded and tested the trendline resistance that has shifted from support to resistance. Based on last week's bullish engulfing pattern, this week and next week favor a rebound toward the $4,300 level. However, last week's upward gap still suggests the possibility of a subsequent pullback to new lows. Therefore, in terms of trading, wait for a breakout for trend-following entries, or buy on pullbacks to support.
On the daily chart, gold rebounded once again on Monday to touch near the trendline resistance, with short-term adjustment pressure weakening. The overall trend remains above the middle track and short-term moving averages, and the attached indicators continue to develop bullish signals. Short-term bullish expectations are relatively strong, with a potential rebound toward the 100-day moving average resistance near $4,200. On the downside, watch short-term moving average support for bullish entries.
The following are preliminary reference levels for intraday long and short positions. Specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time notifications: Gold: Watch support near $4,115 or $4,080 on the downside; watch resistance near $4,165 or $4,190 on the upside. Silver: Watch support near $53.00 or $52.75 on the downside; watch resistance near $54.00 or $54.70 on the upside.
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