Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has unveiled a striking "bull case" scenario, predicting that SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) shares could soar to $600. At that valuation, the company would be worth a staggering $8 trillion, making it the most valuable corporation globally. Jonas initiated coverage on July 7 with an "Overweight" rating and a $300 price target, which he reaffirmed this Tuesday. The current share price stands at around $133.
For the stock to reach $600, a string of critical assumptions must align perfectly. SpaceX must successfully deploy orbital AI data centers at scale, achieving costs that are only half of current levels. This hinges heavily on the company's fully reusable heavy-lift Starship rocket achieving high-frequency, efficient flight. Additionally, Starlink must expand far beyond its current residential internet business to serve AI-powered robots. The bull case envisions hundreds of millions, even billions, of AI-driven robots connecting to Starlink by 2040, generating an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $35. In short, the path from $133 to $600 relies on technologies that don't yet exist and businesses that haven't been scaled, assuming everything unfolds in the most ideal way possible.
The broader Wall Street consensus is more conservative. Since its IPO, analysts have generally been optimistic about SpaceX, with the 32 analysts covering the stock giving an average price target of around $227. The highest target comes from Raymond James at $800, while the lowest is just $75. Analyst firm ratings and targets include: Brian Gesuale at Raymond James with a Buy and $800 target; Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley with a Buy and $300 target; Doug Anmuth at JPMorgan with a Buy and $240 target; Edison Yu at Deutsche Bank with a Buy and $235 target; Ken Gawrelski at Wells Fargo with a Buy and $215 target; Eric Sheridan at Goldman Sachs with a Buy and $220 target; John Hodulik at UBS with a Buy and $210 target; John Godin at Citi with a Buy and $200 target; Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler with a Hold and $140 target; Keith Snyder, CFA, at CFRA with a Sell and $115 target; and Glenn Tum at Phillip Securities with a Sell and $75 target.
In contrast, Morningstar has been more cautious from the start. They believe SpaceX's core launch and Starlink business is only worth about $40 per share, with the rest of the valuation almost entirely dependent on the AI/data center narrative. Even Morningstar's own "moon shot scenario," which values the stock at $154, is assigned just a 7% probability. Morgan Stanley also presents a bear case of $75, but its base case is clearly much higher.
Risks remain significant, and skepticism is warranted regarding the $600 target. SpaceX is undeniably developing remarkable technology, but the gap between current reality and Morgan Stanley's bull case is enormous. Jonas himself noted in a July 24 report that if the stock were only $100, the market would be assigning no value at all to the company's AI business. This implies that most of the upside he sees comes from the AI segment, which is still generating substantial losses. Furthermore, customers in this business can exit lease contracts with just 90 days' notice and no penalty. With technology still unproven and business models uncertain, basing such a lofty valuation on the assumption that "everything goes right" is clearly a high-risk bet.
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