Haitong International released a research report noting that major automakers have recently disclosed November sales figures, revealing intensified divergence in year-end performance with a notably weaker "year-end rally" effect compared to previous years. Among them, BYD COMPANY (01211) achieved record-high overseas exports in November, accelerating its globalization strategy, while GEELY AUTO (00175) is on track to meet its annual sales target of 3 million units. With subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) largely phased out, the slowdown or decline in sales growth may be difficult to reverse. Against the backdrop of ongoing anti-internal competition regulations and subsidy withdrawals, significant structural changes in the December auto market are unlikely, forcing automakers to balance sales volume and profitability in their year-end push.
Key takeaways from Haitong International:
**November Sales: Year-End Rally Falters, Rankings Shuffle** - BYD COMPANY (01211) sold 480,000 units in November, up 9% MoM, including 348,000 domestic sales. Cumulative Jan-Nov sales reached 4.182 million units, up 11% YoY. Overseas exports hit a new high of 130,000 units, surging nearly 300% YoY. - GEELY AUTO (00175) sold 310,000 units in November, up 24% YoY and 1% MoM. Jan-Nov sales totaled 2.79 million units, up 42% YoY, nearing its 3-million-unit annual target. NEV sales reached 188,000 units, up 53% YoY, with penetration exceeding 60%. The Galaxy brand contributed significantly, selling 133,000 units (+76% YoY), while Lynk & Co and Zeekr reported 35,000 and 29,000 units, respectively.
**Slowing Growth Among Leading NEV Startups, Annual Landscape Solidified** - LEAPMOTOR (09863) maintained strong momentum with 70,000 units sold in November (+75% YoY), achieving its 500,000-unit annual target early. - Harmony Intelligent Drive delivered 82,000 units (+90% YoY), with the AITO M7 and M9 Ultra facing persistent supply shortages. - Xiaomi Auto exceeded 40,000 units for the third consecutive month, raising its annual delivery target to over 400,000 units. - LI AUTO-W (02015) saw a 32% YoY decline in November deliveries (33,000 units), impacted by battery supplier transitions and recalls. - XPENG-W (09868) delivered 37,000 units (+19% YoY), while NIO-SW (09866) reported 36,000 units (+76% YoY), though its Q4 guidance remains challenging.
**Risks:** Intensified competition, subsidy reductions, weaker-than-expected industry demand, and macroeconomic downturns.
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