The market experienced consolidation today (March 23), with major A-share indices broadly retreating. The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which provides comprehensive exposure to leading companies in the gold, rare earths, copper, and aluminum sectors, followed the market lower, trading in negative territory. Its intraday price is down 2.91%. Notably, the ETF's current price has retreated to levels last seen in December of the previous year, potentially offering an opportunity for investors bullish on the nonferrous metals outlook to establish positions during the dip.
Among the constituent stocks, Guocheng Mining bucked the trend, rising over 1%. The other 59 stocks declined, with Chifeng Gold resuming trading and falling by the daily limit. Shanjin International dropped over 6%, while Zhongjin Gold, Sinomine Resource Group, and Shandong Gold each fell more than 4%, ranking among the top decliners and weighing on the index performance.
Dongfang Jincheng pointed out that recent trends in precious metals, particularly gold, have been counter-intuitive. Against a backdrop of escalating global geopolitical friction, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has fallen instead of rising. This is attributed firstly to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has significantly dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts, subsequently driving U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index higher. Coupled with recent liquidity tightening triggered by redemptions in the U.S. private credit market, the U.S. dollar now offers dual advantages as both a safe-haven and a yield-bearing asset, diverting safe-haven flows away from gold. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases as Treasury yields rise. Additionally, concentrated selling by investors taking profits has triggered technical selling pressure, collectively leading to downward pressure on gold prices and creating the unusual pattern of "rising oil prices alongside falling gold prices."
From a medium to long-term perspective, several institutions remain relatively optimistic about gold. Wells Fargo projects a year-end target price range of $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce. Their core rationale hinges on structural support for gold prices: global central banks have been net buyers of gold for many consecutive years, the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar is gradually eroding, and geopolitical risk premiums are merely temporarily overshadowed by the narrative of potential rate cuts rather than having disappeared entirely.
Gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between short-term and medium-to-long-term drivers. In the short term, as long as oil prices remain elevated and expectations for rate cuts do not resurface, gold faces pressure. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, should the geopolitical situation in the Middle East see a turnaround, inflation data resume a downward trend, or the Fed unexpectedly pivot to a more dovish stance in any given quarter, gold prices could rebound very rapidly.
CITIC Securities believes that following the conclusion of Middle Eastern geopolitical events, gold has the potential to reach new highs. Historically, the medium-term trajectory of gold prices after Middle East conflicts has still depended on factors related to U.S. dollar credibility and liquidity. Looking at the current conflict, the continuation of two major trends—easy liquidity and a weakening U.S. dollar credit standing—is expected to continue pushing gold prices higher. Historically, advantages in valuation or stock price percentile have amplified the upside for the gold sector. Currently, the PE valuations of leading companies have fallen to historically low levels of 15-20x. Considering also the high synchronization in recent years between stock price peaks and gold price peaks, there is optimism that new highs in gold prices could drive stocks to new highs as well.
[The Nonferrous Metals Theme is Here, An "Unstoppable Super Cycle"] The underlying index of ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its feeder fund (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) provides comprehensive coverage of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It encompasses different phases of the economic cycle through exposure to precious metals (safe-haven), strategic metals (growth), and industrial metals (recovery). This full-category coverage allows for better capture of the sector's overall beta movements. Furthermore, this ETF is a margin trading security, making it an efficient tool for a one-stop allocation to the nonferrous metals sector.
As of the end of February, ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) had a latest size of 2.427 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover exceeding 100 million yuan over the past month. Among the three ETF products tracking the same underlying index in the market, it ranks first in both size and liquidity.
Note: The previous intraday ticker for ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) was Nonferrous Leaders ETF. Reminder: Recent market volatility may be significant. Short-term gains or losses are not indicative of future performance. Investors must make rational investment decisions based on their own financial situation and risk tolerance, paying close attention to position sizing and risk management.
ETF Fee Information: When subscribing for or redeeming fund shares, subscription/redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5%. Intraday trading fees are subject to the rates charged by the securities firm. The ETF does not charge a sales service fee.
Feeder Fund Fee Information: For the ChinaAMC CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class A), the subscription fee rate is 1,000 RMB per subscription for amounts of 2 million RMB or more; 0.6% for amounts between 1 million RMB (inclusive) and 2 million RMB; and 1% for amounts below 1 million RMB. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged. The ChinaAMC CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Feeder Fund (Class C) does not charge a subscription fee. The redemption fee rate is 1.5% for holding periods under 7 days, and 0% for holding periods of 7 days or more. The sales service fee is 0.3%.
Risk Warning: ChinaAMC Nonferrous Metals ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The base date for this index is December 31, 2013, and it was published on July 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five complete calendar years is as follows: 2021, +35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, +2.96%; 2025, +91.67%. The composition of the index's constituent stocks is adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its historical backtested performance is not indicative of its future performance. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not investment advice in any form, nor do they represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the asset manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk等级 as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for Balanced (C3) and above investors. Suitability matching opinions should be based on the selling institution's assessment. Any information appearing in this article is for reference only, and investors are solely responsible for any independent investment decisions they make. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts contained herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. The past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest in funds with caution.
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