During the week of February 23, spot gold in London opened at $5,111.77 per ounce, reaching a high of $5,281.38, a low of $5,093.20, and closing at $5,279.16. Market participants maintain a bullish outlook on international gold and silver prices for the week but advise caution against potential profit-taking. A reader poll (3,944 participants) indicated 70% are bullish on gold prices this week, 21% expect consolidation, and 9% are bearish. Independent analyst Wu Di identified the pivotal point for the week at $5,218.
Market focus has shifted from fundamentals to geopolitical conflicts, significantly strengthening bullish factors. Initial geopolitical shocks to the U.S. stock market typically manifest as sentiment impacts and a sharp rise in risk premiums, leading to increased volatility and capital reallocation. In an environment of significantly heightened uncertainty, capital tends to flow from equities into safe-haven assets like gold. Investors should monitor for any signs of de-escalation; a rapid easing of tensions could lead to a full reversal of market expectations, potentially causing declines in international gold and oil prices.
The current probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in March is 6.4%, with a 93.6% chance rates remain unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by April is 22.6%, with a 76.2% chance of unchanged rates and a 1.2% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 43.9%.
Technically, gold prices in the Asian session opened higher but then fell, influenced by weekend geopolitical factors, showing slightly insufficient upward momentum. The pivotal point for the week is $5,218 per ounce. Trading above this level suggests bulls still hold a significant advantage. However, several indicators are in overbought territory, hinting at a potential correction. Support is seen near $5,218; a decisive break below could shift support to around $5,154. Resistance is observed near $5,343; a clear break above could adjust resistance to approximately $5,406.
Independent analyst Zhou Zhicheng suggests international gold prices may continue their ascent. Data released during the Spring Festival showed the U.S. core PCE rose 3% year-over-year in December 2025, compared to 2.8% early in the year. Real PCE increased 0.1% month-over-month in December 2025, down from a previous 0.3%, while the savings rate hit its lowest since October 2022. The U.S. January PPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, with core PPI up 3.6%, both significantly exceeding market expectations, with the core rate marking the fastest increase since March 2025. The broad-based, stronger-than-expected rise in January PPI highlights persistent inflationary pressures.
The rekindling of conflict in the Middle East has created highly tense geopolitical conditions, potentially severely impacting oil and gas markets. Rising oil prices could directly push international gold prices higher. However, increased oil prices could also exacerbate U.S. inflationary pressures, making the likelihood and frequency of Fed rate cuts this year more uncertain, with the timing potentially delayed further. Overall, it remains highly probable that international gold prices will set new historical highs and silver will again break above $100 per ounce, but frequent, disorderly, and sharp volatility is expected. Market participants are advised to enhance risk management.
Technically, the U.S. dollar index remains below 98. Resistance for gold is at $5,300, $5,450, and $5,590 per ounce, with support at $5,250, $5,190, and $5,090. With the U.S. set to release February employment data and the Fed issuing a new Beige Book this week, gold prices are likely to continue rising. The gold-silver ratio has declined to 56.3. Silver prices are expected to consolidate and rebound within a range of $88.5 to $103.5 per ounce this week.
Li Yuefeng, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, stated that the impact of the Middle East situation on international gold prices must be closely watched. If the conflict persists or expands, safe-haven flows could further drive up gold and silver prices. Conversely, successful diplomatic mediation cooling risk aversion could trigger profit-taking at high levels. Technically, gold is currently in a medium-term range of $4,383 to $5,415 per ounce, with long-term potential to break above the $6,000 mark. Short-term resistance is in the $5,350-$5,415 zone, with key resistance at $5,500-$5,600. Short-term support lies at $5,250-$5,200, with key support at $5,150-$5,100. For silver, short-term resistance is at $98-$100, with key resistance at $103-$110. Support is at $91-$88, with key support in the $86-$83 zone.
Hong Jie, a registered senior gold investment analyst, believes short-term international gold prices may still have upward momentum but warns of a potential correction from high levels. Recent events in the Middle East continuously release risk signals, triggering a sharp rise in market risk aversion and significant capital inflows into gold. Geopolitical risk has become a key driver for gold's ascent. Technicals are also positive, with gold achieving a short-term breakout and closing the week with a strong bullish candlestick. Analysis of technical patterns suggests potential for further short-term gains. Current support is around $5,150-$5,120, while significant resistance is noted near $5,570-$5,600.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice or operational guidance and represents the authors' views.)
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