Despite the United States imposing a maritime blockade on Iranian shipping, Iran continues to load millions of barrels of crude oil onto Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). However, as the American blockade persists, these operations are expected to become increasingly difficult.
Satellite imagery from the EU's Sentinel-1 satellite on Monday showed a VLCC, capable of carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude, docked at the Kharg Island terminal. Earlier imagery from the previous Saturday showed no vessels present at Kharg Island. There is currently no evidence of significant volumes of crude oil bypassing the U.S. blockade, suggesting the loaded oil is likely filling the available tankers Iran has in the region. Monday's images also revealed 13 vessels, mostly VLCCs, anchored off the eastern side of the island. In contrast, imagery from the day before the blockade began showed only about half that number of vessels anchored.
The U.S. has stated that its naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman has prevented nearly 36 Iranian vessels from transiting, thereby cutting off the flow of Iranian crude to buyers. The Trump administration is attempting to sever Iran's critical oil revenues, and market observers are closely watching to see how long Iran can sustain its production levels.
Iran has made repeated attempts to breach the U.S. blockade. The U.S. Navy reported intercepting at least two VLCCs in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea this week, forcing them and other ships to return to Iranian ports. A significant cluster of tankers and other vessels has now gathered near Iran's Chabahar port, close to the Pakistani border.
This week, U.S. forces also boarded the oil tanker 'Majestic X,' which was carrying Iranian crude, in the Indian Ocean. This followed the interception of the tanker 'Tifani' in waters between Sri Lanka and the Strait of Malacca a few days prior. Both vessels were subject to U.S. sanctions, and these boarding actions indicate the blockade's reach extends far beyond the Gulf of Oman.
Since the conflict in the Middle East escalated in late February and Iran effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz to other traffic, it has become the sole major oil exporter in the Persian Gulf. A decline in exports will severely impact Iran's fiscal backbone—oil revenue. An analyst team at J.P. Morgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, noted in an April 21st report that if tankers cannot sail, the U.S. actions could ultimately force Iran to cut production. This would "restrict exports on a physical level, not just financially, significantly narrowing the scope for sanctions-evading trade and eventually compelling Iran to reduce output."
However, this process will not be immediate. Energy consultancy FGE NexantECA stated that Iran has 90 million barrels of available storage capacity. Even if the U.S. blockade completely halts exports, Iran could continue producing at its current rate of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day for up to two months. Miad Maleki, a former U.S. Treasury official responsible for sanctions policy during Trump's first term and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, commented, "They are loading tankers, which buys them more time. This also somewhat alleviates the impending issue of filling their storage capacity."
It is understood that most tankers transporting Iranian crude turn off their automatic identification systems during transit. Even before the current conflict, most Iran-linked vessels would stop transmitting signals upon entering the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. They typically do not reactivate their signals until reaching the Strait of Malacca—a journey of about 13 days from Kharg Island. Tankers attempting to run the blockade are likely employing similar tactics. Therefore, even if a vessel successfully evades the U.S. Navy, it could take a week or longer for it to appear in vessel tracking systems.
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