Special Topic: Yinhua Fund Advisors Daily View 2026. For stock investing, turn to the Jin Qilin analyst research reports — authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! Source: Yinhua Fund Advisors.
Core View
Renewed US-Iran conflict and elevated oil prices have reinforced rate-hike expectations, pressuring growth assets. Today A-shares traded in a narrow range on shrinking volume: the Shanghai Composite edged up 0.19% while most individual stocks fell, with the weak tone not yet reversed and caution running high; yet the supporting forces are clear, as company buybacks and incremental ETF inflows keep flowing in. Short-term sentiment may have already been initially vented, and equities may now offer relatively better value versus bonds. Our strategy stays cautiously optimistic: we can appropriately raise the emphasis on broad-based indexes, while keeping a suitable degree of caution. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
From the weekend through today, overseas markets have been anything but calm, with the US-Iran conflict flaring up again and oil prices continuing to run at elevated levels. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.24-2026.10.26)
Looking first at external factors: the geopolitical situation remains fairly complex. On October 23, Houthi forces damaged oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz (with a combined deadweight of more than 4.5 million barrels), and simultaneously attacked oil facilities along Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast; the US side then issued threats of action against Iran and announced a new round of sanctions. Brent crude intraday on that day once reached 117.45 US dollars, with a cumulative weekly gain of more than 6%. With oil prices high, inflation expectations have moved up, rate-hike expectations have strengthened accordingly, global discount rates remain elevated, and long-duration growth assets may stay under pressure. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.23)
Turning to internal factors: the Shanghai Composite Index closed up, but some indexes consolidated on shrinking volume. Today the Shanghai Composite opened lower, then rebounded from its lows to close up 0.19% at 3697.52 points; but the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.19%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.71%, and the STAR 50 fell 2.23%; turnover was 1.62 trillion yuan, shrinking by about 350 billion yuan from last Friday. On the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, 2,110 stocks rose and 3,031 fell, with decliners outnumbering advancers. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
On the Wind sector layout, "defensive" and "resource" plays continued to outperform, while the AI hardware sector kept adjusting. The market's weak structure has not yet reversed, the dual-innovation boards have trended weakly, and shrinking volume itself is a footnote to the wait-and-see mood. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
But the supporting forces are equally clear, and this is the basis for current "not being overly pessimistic." First, some companies announced buybacks and the like last Friday; second, incremental ETF funds continue to enter the market. (Data source: Wind)
Of course, on one hand, "it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic," because short-term sentiment may have already been initially vented, and in terms of stock-bond value, the 10-year government bond yield is oscillating near a low of 1.64%, with limited room for further decline, while equity valuations are low, so equities may offer relatively better value versus bonds. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
On the other hand, some ammunition still needs to be kept in reserve, since the weak market structure has not yet reversed, and this week still brings events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and third-quarter earnings disclosures, so volatility could amplify at any time. Therefore, in terms of strategy, we maintain cautious optimism: we can appropriately increase attention to broad-based indexes, which do not bet on structure and spread risk; but a suitable degree of caution is needed.
Let's look at today's specific market moves:
Domestic Equities: The Shanghai Composite rebounded from its lows throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index trended slightly weaker. Decliners outnumbered advancers, with today's turnover at 1.62 trillion. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component fell 1.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.71%. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
Domestic Fixed Income: 30-year government bond futures rose 0.29%. In the spot market, most government bond yields declined. (Data source: Wind, 2026.10.26)
Other Information: 1. China's State Council: accelerate the building of a birth-friendly society, optimize fiscal, social security, housing and other support measures for families, and strive to stabilize the scale of new births. (Data source: Wallstreetcn, 2026.10.26) 2. China's fiscal expenditure in the first three quarters grew 1% year-on-year. The Ministry of Finance: promptly carry out work related to the early issuance of part of the new local government debt for 2027. (Data source: Wallstreetcn, 2026.10.26) 3. The US says the Iran issue is approaching a moment of decision, and reports say Iran is preparing for a possible new round of US bombing and does not rule out retaliation across the entire Middle East region. (Data source: Wallstreetcn, 2026.10.26)
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