1. **Decline in Power Generation Growth in Early November**: According to the China Electricity Council (CEC), coal-fired power plants under its statistics reported a 2.7% year-on-year (YoY) drop in cumulative power generation as of November 6 (compared to a 6.2% YoY increase in October). The CEC noted that northern regions will enter the full heating season starting November 15, with some power plants still needing to replenish coal inventories. Non-power industries, affected by winter environmental restrictions and high coal costs, are expected to maintain low coal demand.
2. **Mixed Industrial Operating Rates**: Upstream sectors like steel and coking saw slower growth in operating rates, while downstream sectors such as textile machinery in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed improvement. As of the second week of November, the blast furnace operating rate at 247 steel mills nationwide rose 0.9 percentage points (ppt) YoY (vs. 2.8 ppt previously), while coking plant operating rates fell 0.6 ppt YoY (vs. 2.5 ppt previously). PVC operating rates grew 0.6 ppt YoY (vs. 0.9 ppt), and polyester filament weaving machinery in Jiangsu/Zhejiang rose 0.4 ppt YoY (vs. -2.8 ppt). Shandong independent refineries’ operating rates edged up 0.4 ppt YoY (vs. -1.1 ppt). Semi-steel tire production fell 5.5 ppt YoY (vs. -11.4 ppt), while full-steel tire production rose 4.5 ppt YoY (vs. 4.4 ppt).
3. **Steel Output Declines, Especially Hot-Rolled Coils**: As of November 10, daily crude steel output at key mills fell 1.4% month-on-month (MoM) to 1.926 million tons. By November 14, rebar output dropped 0.9% MoM and 12.9% YoY (vs. -13.8% previously), while hot-rolled coil output fell 2.2% MoM but rose 2.5% YoY (vs. 5.5% previously).
4. **Construction Activity Weakens Seasonally**: As of November 11, funding availability at sampled construction sites edged up 0.1 ppt MoM, with non-residential and residential projects showing -0.1 ppt and +0.4 ppt changes, respectively. By November 12, asphalt operating rates fell 3.9 ppt MoM and 1.0 ppt YoY (vs. +4.5 ppt previously). Cement shipment rates dropped 4.3 ppt MoM to 33.4% by November 7.
5. **Subdued Urban Mobility**: In the first two weeks of November, subway passenger volume in ten major cities averaged 61.52 million trips daily, down 0.7% YoY (vs. +1.0% previously). Domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) rose 1.5% YoY (vs. +2.4%), while international flights grew 14.3% YoY (vs. +13.6%).
6. **Solar Sector Momentum Continues**: The Solar Manager Index (SMI) hit 137.9 as of November 3, the highest since April 2024, with mid-upstream manufacturing activity surging 18.2 ppt MoM.
7. **Weak Property Sales Under High Base Pressure**: From November 1–16, daily sales of commercial housing in 30 major cities plunged 38.4% YoY (vs. -26.6% in October). Tier-1, -2, and -3 cities saw declines of 45.3%, 33.7%, and 34.7%, respectively. Secondary home transactions in 80 cities fell 17.3% YoY in the first 13 days of November.
8. **Auto Retail Sales Slow Further**: From November 1–9, passenger vehicle retail sales dropped 19% YoY (vs. -0.8% previously), while wholesale sales fell 22% YoY (vs. +7.6%). NEV retail sales declined 5% YoY (vs. +7.3%), with subsidy cuts fueling dealer caution.
9. **Appliance Sales and Production Decline**: Online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines fell 36.7%–2.2% YoY (November 3–9), while offline sales dropped 61.8%–54.1%. November production plans for these appliances totaled 28.47 million units, down 17.7% YoY.
10. **Port Activity Steady, U.S. Shipments Drop**: Container throughput at Chinese ports rose 6.5% YoY (November 3–9), matching October’s pace. U.S.-bound container shipments fell 26.8% YoY in volume and 30.2% in tonnage (vs. -7.6% and +0.3% in October).
11. **Commodity Prices Rebound**: The Business Society BPI Index rose 0.6% by November 14, driven by energy and non-ferrous metals. Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged 40.9% MoM on energy storage demand, while pork prices stabilized.
12. **Key Takeaways**: Early November data showed mild recovery in urban mobility but continued slowdown in autos and appliances. Solar and energy storage sectors remained bright spots, while infrastructure activity lagged amid delayed funding and project matching. Policy-driven financing is expected to accelerate early next year.
**Risks**: Greater-than-expected domestic economic slowdown; aggressive policy stimulus; property downturn; overseas monetary policy shifts; export weakness; commodity volatility; geopolitical risks.
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