On the geopolitical front, on November 2 local time, US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island. US President Trump acknowledged that the US military launched a "small-scale attack" on Iran, while Iran said its defensive readiness is at its highest level. Iran demanded that the United States respond fully and clearly to seven conditions, otherwise it will not open the Strait of Hormuz and will not engage in negotiations.
On the Russia-Ukraine front, trilateral negotiations among Russia, the United States and Ukraine will be held in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, from November 10 to 11. The Ukrainian and US delegations will hold a parallel meeting, focusing on a ceasefire in energy and critical infrastructure and the resumption of Black Sea grain exports. NATO representatives will meet with representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States later this week to discuss how to push for an end to the war in Ukraine.
On the economic data front, US JOLTS job openings totaled 7.523 million in September, far exceeding economists' expectations and up 333,000 from the upwardly revised 7.19 million in August. Hires rose by 131,000 to 5.402 million in September, while layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000 to 1.641 million, the lowest since March 2025.
Futures Market and Trading Volume: On 2026-11-03, the most-traded SHFE gold contract opened at 835.70 yuan/gram and closed at 841.80 yuan/gram, a change of 0.60% from the previous trading day's close. In yesterday's night session, the most-traded SHFE gold contract opened at 846.00 yuan/gram and closed at 845.20 yuan/gram, up 0.40% from yesterday's afternoon close. On 2026-11-03, the most-traded SHFE silver contract opened at 11,876.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,655.00 yuan/kg, a change of -1.94% from the previous trading day's close. In yesterday's night session, the most-traded SHFE silver contract opened at 11,800 yuan/kg and closed at 11,856 yuan/kg, up 1.72% from yesterday's afternoon close.
US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring: On 2026-11-03, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.91%, a change of -0.04% from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.32%, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day.
Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume: On 2026-11-03, in the Au2612 contract, long positions changed by -4,525 lots from the previous day, while short positions changed by -2,077 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts in the previous trading day was 340,633 lots, a change of -18.82% from the previous trading day. In silver, in the Ag2612 contract, long positions changed by -10,667 lots and short positions changed by -5,215 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts in the previous trading day was 1,073,898 lots, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking: In precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings were 1,037.662 tons yesterday, down 2.851 tons from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 15,751.9 tons, down 7.54 tons from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking: Futures-spot spread: On 2026-11-03, in terms of the domestic premium, gold's domestic premium was -8.34 yuan/gram yesterday, and silver's domestic premium was -313.61 yuan/kg. Gold-silver ratio: Yesterday, the price ratio of the most-traded SHFE gold and silver contracts was about 72.23, a change of 2.59% from the previous trading day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 77.74, a change of 3.44% from the previous trading day.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring. In the previous trading day (2026-11-03), the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold trading volume was 33,512 kg, a change of -34.70% from the previous trading day. Silver trading volume was 411,254 kg, a change of -29.79% from the previous trading day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and silver delivery volume was 14,340 kg.
Strategy Gold: Neutral. At present, market risk sentiment has emerged somewhat, and combined with the relatively strong resilience of the US economy, demand for gold investment may weaken slightly, so gold prices are expected to be mainly in a choppy range in the near term. Silver: Neutral. At present, the logic for silver is similar to that for gold, and combined with the relatively strong resilience of the US economy, silver prices themselves are also expected to remain in a choppy range. Arbitrage: On hold. Options: On hold.
Risks Overseas liquidity risk; speculative positions continuing to exit. Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289.
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