Movement Alert｜CNOOC Falls 3.05% in Regular Trading, Morgan Stanley Target Cut and Oil Price Retreat Compound Pressure

Market Focus05-27

On May 27, CNOOC fell 3.05% in regular trading to HK$26.12, with trading volume reaching HK$724 million, marking the third consecutive session of significant declines.

On the news front, Morgan Stanley recently cut its target price for CNOOC from HK$20.7 to HK$17.6, lowering its long-term oil price assumption to US$55 per barrel. The bank trimmed total earnings forecasts by 13%-15% for FY2025 and FY2026, while reducing Brent crude estimates to US$65 and US$62 per barrel respectively. Despite maintaining an Overweight rating, the bank acknowledged cost-control leadership among Chinese majors. Concurrently, OPEC+ members plan to continue raising output quotas in the coming months, intensifying supply-surplus expectations. Meanwhile, US-Iran peace negotiations have entered a final phase, with reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension and commitments to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, effectively eroding the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported prices above US$110 per barrel. As a pure upstream operator, CNOOC faces direct profit compression from every dollar decline in oil prices, amplifying downside pressure on shares in the near term.

(The above content is based on publicly available market information, generated by a program or algorithm, and is intended solely as a stock movement alert. It does not constitute investment advice or a basis for trading decisions.)

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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