Northeast Securities released a research report forecasting that Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. (02050) will achieve operating revenues of 32.26/37.13/44.12 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.24/5.12/6.03 billion yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 35/29/25 times. This marks the first coverage of the stock, accompanied by an "Add" rating.
The catalyst for this analysis was the company's release of its 2025 annual performance forecast. A synergistic push from both its traditional refrigeration and automotive thermal management segments is expected to drive a significant pre-tax profit increase for the company in 2025. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.87 to 4.65 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50%; after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit is forecasted to be between 3.68 and 4.61 billion yuan, up 18% to 48% compared to the previous year.
The traditional refrigeration business has demonstrated remarkable performance, growing 25.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This robust growth is attributed to two key factors: firstly, governments worldwide are implementing low-carbon and energy-efficiency policies, accelerating the green transformation of their economies, which has led to continuously expanding demand for refrigeration and air conditioning control components in overseas markets, thereby pulling stable growth in refrigeration product exports. Secondly, the company is benefiting from the explosive demand for liquid cooling in data centers, driven by AI computing power, as it supplies core components such as valves, pumps, and heat exchangers for liquid cooling systems. In H1 2025, the traditional refrigeration business achieved revenue of 10.39 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, and realized a gross margin of 28.2%, up 0.65 percentage points.
The automotive components business is accelerating its recovery, with the customer structure continuously being optimized. Affected by the production and sales of its key major client, Tesla, the automotive components business revenue for H1 2025 was 5.87 billion yuan, representing only an 8.8% year-on-year growth. However, benefiting from an improvement in Tesla's production and sales, with Tesla's global deliveries reaching 497,000 units in Q3 (a 7.4% year-on-year increase), the company's automotive components business is experiencing an accelerated recovery. Furthermore, the company's reliance on Tesla is gradually decreasing. International giants like General Motors, along with domestic new automakers such as Xiaomi, Li Auto, and XPeng, are beginning to contribute significant incremental business. The company has also successfully secured European clients like Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Stellantis, where progress had been slower previously.
The strategic importance of humanoid robots is clearly defined, with production capacity being established in advance, awaiting future growth. The company has a deep partnership with Tesla and serves as a core supplier of electromechanical actuators for Tesla's humanoid robot, providing integrated products including both rotary and linear actuators. Currently, the company has established a dedicated humanoid robotics division and has set up a production base in Thailand to support the mass production needs of its clients. This venture is expected to begin contributing significant revenue growth for the company starting in 2026.
Potential risks highlighted include humanoid robot mass production falling short of expectations; new energy vehicle sales underperforming forecasts; and the company's performance predictions and valuation not meeting expectations.
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